It may take one year to recover VN economy: experts

A low GDP growth rate is unavoidable in 2020 as the economy has been seriously affected by Covid-19.

Under all three economic development scenarios designed by the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), Vietnam would not obtain a 6.8 percent GDP growth rate as initially planned.

It may take one year to recover VN economy: experts



In fact, the low GDP growth rate for 2020 has also been predicted by domestic and international institutions. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) said at the conference between the government and provincial authorities on April 10 that the GDP growth rate this year would be lower than 6.8 percent.

Under VEPR’s most optimistic scenario, with the epidemic contained in mid-May, GDP would grow by 4.2 percent.

Under the less optimistic scenario, i.e. the epidemic ends by Q3, GDP would grow by 1.5 percent only.

Under all three economic development scenarios designed by the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), Vietnam would not obtain a 6.8 percent GDP growth rate as initially planned.

Meanwhile, under the worst scenario, the GDP growth rate would be minus 1 percent if the epidemic can be controlled by the second half of Q4.

 


According to Pham The Anh from VEPR, in all scenarios, in the post-Covid-19 period, many business fields such as aviation and tourism would have to struggle to recover and the recovery process would last until when the world completely controls the pandemic.

Anh noted that the figures about GDP growth rate do not fully reflect the real difficulties of the national economy, because they cannot count the unofficial economic sector which was more seriously hit in the previous recessions.

Nguyen Tri Hieu, a respected economist, said if the world can control the epidemic by Q2, i.e. the number of infection cases and deaths do not increase, the epidemic will be stopped short. If so, the world’s economy will recover.

If the world still cannot control the pandemic by the end of June, the national economy will face bigger difficulties.

Hieu said if Vietnam can contain the epidemic by the end of June, the economy will begin its recovery process in early Q3. The process will last a long time – from six months to one year. This means that Vietnam’s economy would only return to normal in the two last quarters of 2021.

If the epidemic cannot be contained by the end of June, Vietnam and the world would fall into a crisis.

The Government has launched economic relief packages, including a VND300 trillion credit package, a VND180 trillion package for tax and land rent payment extension, a VND11 trillion package for electricity bill reduction, and VND62 trillion for social security.

Nguyen Duc Thanh from VEPR said with the packages, the government is not pumping money directly into circulation, so high inflation will not occur. 

Thanh Lich

Digital economy expected to add 30% to GDP by 2030

Digital economy expected to add 30% to GDP by 2030

The country wants to raise the digital economy’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) to 20 per cent by 2025 and 30 per cent by 2030.

Economic growth slows as GDP rate threatened

Economic growth slows as GDP rate threatened

Sticky projected prospects caused by the global health crisis among  Vietnam’s key trading partners are expected to hit the domestic economy this year with the manufacturing and processing sector, one of the key growth pillars, to be hit hardest.

 
 

Other News

.
Flower farmers do not dare grow large quantities for Tet amid Covid uncertainty
Flower farmers do not dare grow large quantities for Tet amid Covid uncertainty
BUSINESSicon  19/11/2021 

Many flower and bonsai farmers in HCM City and the Cuu Long (Mekong) Delta have reduced production for Tet (Lunar New Year) which falls early next year since they are worried the COVID-19 pandemic will affect demand.

Global energy crisis: another concern for Vietnam's economy
Global energy crisis: another concern for Vietnam's economy
FEATUREicon  19/11/2021 

Disrupted coal mining in Ordis in Inner Mongolia, the most important coal mining hub in the world, is posing huge risks that could stifle global growth.

Too many traceability apps confuse farm-produce buyers
Too many traceability apps confuse farm-produce buyers
FEATUREicon  19/11/2021 

The farm produce traceability system in Vietnam still doesn’t match GS1 standards (the most widely used system of standards in the world), and, as such, the existing traceability apps are just for internal use.

More businesses seek black credit as cash flow plummets
More businesses seek black credit as cash flow plummets
FEATUREicon  19/11/2021 

Seventy-one percent of businesses anticipate revenue decreases in 2021, higher than the 65 percent figure in 2020, according to a survey.

Overspend in the works for reboot of national economy
Overspend in the works for reboot of national economy
BUSINESSicon  19/11/2021 

Vietnam may not be able to increase its budget deficit next year in order to ensure state budget spending, with the economy still sabotaged and business revenues still dented.

Captivating incentives target FDI from Europe
Captivating incentives target FDI from Europe
BUSINESSicon  18/11/2021 

Vietnam will continue considering foreign investment one of its important drivers for socioeconomic development over the next four years, with its ambitious plan to attract more high-quality funding. 

VN to strengthen financial foundation in the next ten years
VN to strengthen financial foundation in the next ten years
BUSINESSicon  19/11/2021 

Vietnam's top priority for 2021-30 is to build a financial foundation for the country's sustainable development, said policymakers and experts during a conference to discuss finance strategy for the 2021-30 period.

Pandemic makes 85 percent of Vietnamese consumers more likely to use digital banking in future
Pandemic makes 85 percent of Vietnamese consumers more likely to use digital banking in future
BUSINESSicon  18/11/2021 

Around 85 percent of Vietnamese banking consumers are more likely to use online and digital banking services compared to 18 months ago, according to a new report from SaaS cloud banking platform Mambu.

Food shopping trends change due to social distancing
Food shopping trends change due to social distancing
BUSINESSicon  18/11/2021 

The way people buy food in HCM City has changed after a period of social distancing amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with more food products bought online, according to online sellers.

The cost of reopening the economy
The cost of reopening the economy
FEATUREicon  18/11/2021 

Nearly two months have passed since Ho Chi Minh City and 18 southern provinces have lifted lockdown measures and set up the "new normal", with the operations of people and enterprises gradually resuming.

More gyms close as membership dwindles
More gyms close as membership dwindles
FEATUREicon  18/11/2021 

More and more gyms have shut down or have been transferred to others, sometimes for free.

Coffee, vegetable industries agree on codes of conduct to encourage sustainability
Coffee, vegetable industries agree on codes of conduct to encourage sustainability
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

As many as 42 enterprises from the coffee and fruit-vegetable industries have signed a pledge to show their commitment to support and implement the codes of conduct (CoCs) 

Pandemic will have long-lasting impact on business operations in Vietnam
Pandemic will have long-lasting impact on business operations in Vietnam
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

Many factories, including about 200 contracted factories that make sportwear for Nike Corporation, resumed production in Vietnam earlier this month. 

Hoa Binh: attractive destination for investors
Hoa Binh: attractive destination for investors
BUSINESSicon  04/11/2021 

In an effort to attract investment, especially from the start-up community and young entrepreneurs, the authorities of Hoa Binh province have issued special incentive policies.

VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS NOVEMBER 18
VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS NOVEMBER 18
BUSINESSicon  18/11/2021 

Fee reductions extended until June 2022

Vietnam to attract more investment in seaport development
Vietnam to attract more investment in seaport development
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

Vietnam will need about 313 trillion VND (13.7 billion USD) to develop a modern seaport system between now and 2030, and the funding will mostly come from non-budget sources.

VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS NOVEMBER 17
VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS NOVEMBER 17
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

Shares retreat on selling pressure, liquidity remains high

Vietnam Airlines officially receives FAA permit to run direct flights to US
Vietnam Airlines officially receives FAA permit to run direct flights to US
BUSINESSicon  16/11/2021 

National flag carrier Vietnam Airlines on November 16 officially received a permit from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to operate non-stop commercial flight service between Vietnam and the US.

Vietnam, Israel look toward bilateral FTA next year
Vietnam, Israel look toward bilateral FTA next year
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien has hailed Israel as a promising market of Vietnam in West Asia.

Economic recovery: businesses can find their own way with new policies
Economic recovery: businesses can find their own way with new policies
BUSINESSicon  17/11/2021 

Economic expert Pham Chi Lan said that financial solutions to support pandemic-affected businesses this year have not yet learned from the irrationalities of 2020. 

 
 
 
Leave your comment on an article

OR QUICK LOGIN