Standard Chartered expects Vietnam to be ASEAN outperformer

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam to remain the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in the near term, with 2019 growth projected at 6.9 percent.

Rice loaded for exports. (Source: thoibaotaichinh.vn)



The FDI-driven manufacturing sector, which is poised for a fourth consecutiveyear of double-digit growth, will continue to be a key growth driver.

The forecast is highlighted in the bank’s recently published Global Focus –Economic Outlook report for Quarter 3, 2019 entitled “The dovish wave grows”.

“Vietnam’s growth prospect remains strong, with macro-economic conditionsstaying stable in the first half of the year which is likely to continuetowards year-end.  We expect growth to accelerate mildly in the secondhalf from 6.7 percent in the first half,” said Chidu Narayanan, Economist,Asia, Standard Chartered Bank.

According to the latest macro-economic research report, FDI inflows will stayrobust this year, particularly to the manufacturing sector, totalling 18billion USD.

Vietnam’s export growth is likely to remain steady and outperform peers.Electronics exports, which make up about a third of the total, are likely to beless supportive than in recent years due to slowing external demand and lowersemiconductor prices.

 

Improving ‘traditional’ exports –textiles and agriculture – should continue to take up some of the slack. Importgrowth is expected to remain close to 10 percent on slowing capital-goodsimports; this should keep the trade balance in surplus in 2019.

The study also suggests that the State Bank of Vietnam will remainaccommodative in the near term to support growth, with still-modest inflationgiving it sufficient space.

Standard Chartered forecasts thatinflation will pick up modestly in the last six months of the year, averaging2.8 percent in comparison to 2.6 percent in the first half of the year and coreinflation, which excludes prices of food, energy, health care and educationservices, will edge up to 2 percent in 2019.

Standard Chartered’s economists expect unchanged policy rates in 2019 and mildappreciation of the VND. They anticipate that VND shouldremain supported near-term by a stable current account surplus and strong FDIinflows and forecast USD/VND at 23,100 at end-2019 and 23,000 inmid-2020.

 
 

Other News

.
Vietnam Airlines plans to sell nine planes due to financial woes
Vietnam Airlines plans to sell nine planes due to financial woes
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Vietnam Airlines is planning to sell nine A321CEO planes to optimize its fleet and improve its cash flow, as the national flag carrier’s revenue has dropped sharply due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vietnam – one of the best long-term growth stories in Asia
Vietnam – one of the best long-term growth stories in Asia
BUSINESSicon  07/08/2020 

Vietnam is one of the best long-term growth stories in Asia and is one of the most preferred frontier markets, according to HSBC.

Maximum $130,700 fine for listing violations: Draft decree
Maximum $130,700 fine for listing violations: Draft decree
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Public companies may receive a penalty of VND2-3 billion ($87,120-$130,700) for falsifying share listing and trading documents under a proposal from the Ministry of Finance.

Singaporean business surges ahead
Singaporean business surges ahead
BUSINESSicon  07/08/2020 

Singaporean business and investment in Vietnam has increased significantly over the decades, thus greatly contributing to strengthening economic bilateral ties.

Furthering developmental ties with dynamic Singapore
Furthering developmental ties with dynamic Singapore
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Vietnam and Singapore are witnessing their heyday in bilateral and multifaceted cooperation.

Wide impacts to be made with new law changes
Wide impacts to be made with new law changes
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Effective in 2021, the amended laws on Enterprises, Investment, and Public-Private Partnership are expected to entail breakthrough changes to Vietnam’s business and investment landscape in the coming time, 

Decisive actions to achieve goals
Decisive actions to achieve goals
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

The Ministry of Planning and Investment is currently working on possible scenarios for the upcoming period amid the ongoing developments of the global health crisis.

Millenium to develop $15 billion LNG project in Khanh Hoa
Millenium to develop $15 billion LNG project in Khanh Hoa
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

If the $15 billion LNG project of Millenium Group is approved, it will contribute to making the Nam Van Phong area the largest LNG centre in Southeast Asia.

Rebound likely despite bumpy roads
Rebound likely despite bumpy roads
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Despite a serious dip in local production caused by the health crisis, Vietnam is expected to be one of the fastest-growing nations worldwide this year, with the economy forecast to stay among the few nations with positive growth.

Unique advantages can pull Vietnam out of uncertainty
Unique advantages can pull Vietnam out of uncertainty
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

In life, economic and health gains are not always equal. This is true for individuals and for countries. While Vietnam has managed to contain the pandemic so far, its economy has been hurt in recent months. 

Hanoi’s Old Quarter businesses bear brunt of COVID-19 impact
Hanoi’s Old Quarter businesses bear brunt of COVID-19 impact
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

The second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic to hit Vietnam has continued to deal a devastating blow to small businesses, travel agencies, and tourist accommodations in the Old Quarter of Hanoi due to the suspension of operations.

Container handling charge increases proposed to attract investment in seaports
Container handling charge increases proposed to attract investment in seaports
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Container loading and unloading service charges should be increased to approach the regional level so investors would not feel hesitant when pouring money into developing seaports.

Policies encourage automakers to assemble cars in Vietnam
Policies encourage automakers to assemble cars in Vietnam
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

 Several automakers are considering assembling their best-selling models in Viet Nam due to the Government’s policy of zero import tariffs on components and a 50 per cent reduction in registration fees.

Thai firms acquire wind power farm in Ninh Thuan
Thai firms acquire wind power farm in Ninh Thuan
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

Thailand’s Banpu and its power business arm Banpu Power (BPP) have joined forces to acquire El Wind Mui Dinh, an onshore wind farm in the south-central province of Ninh Thuan, in a deal worth $66 million.

EVFTA smooths the way for Vietnamese farm produce
EVFTA smooths the way for Vietnamese farm produce
BUSINESSicon  06/08/2020 

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, at its core, aims to liberalise both tariff and non-tariff barriers on key exports of both sides over a period of 10 years.

Mountainous areas and islands need investment
Mountainous areas and islands need investment
BUSINESSicon  07/08/2020 

PhD Doctor Le Quoc Phuong, former deputy director for the Information Centre for Industry and Trade, under the Ministry of Trade, talks on key requirements in trade development in mountainous areas and islands.

Vietnam receives positive view in global exports as EVFTA takes effect: report
Vietnam receives positive view in global exports as EVFTA takes effect: report
BUSINESSicon  05/08/2020 

Vietnam is expected to continue growing its share of global exports despite decline amid the resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic after three months of no local transmissions, according to an HSBC report.

Local banks are racing to catch digitisation trend: expert
Local banks are racing to catch digitisation trend: expert
BUSINESSicon  05/08/2020 

Vietnam has seen a digital wave in the finance-banking industry, with many lenders investing significantly in digitisation, experts have said.

Experts call on Vietnamese government to aid businesses again
Experts call on Vietnamese government to aid businesses again
BUSINESSicon  05/08/2020 

Amid the new COVID-19 outbreak, experts have suggested the Government offer another credit support package to help enterprises, especially large businesses in key areas.

Vietnam's textile and apparel firms lack orders for the last two quarters
Vietnam's textile and apparel firms lack orders for the last two quarters
BUSINESSicon  05/08/2020 

The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that textile production increased by 1.8 per cent, while clothing production decreased by 4.6 per cent in the first seven months of this year over the same period last year.

 
 
 
Leave your comment on an article

OR QUICK LOGIN