Local stocks are forecast to struggle in a narrow range next week as investors are still uncertain about the prospects of the market and especially businesses hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
Listed firms are forecast to report lower-than-expected earnings in the first three months of 2020 as their sales have been impacted by the COVID-19 virus, which emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.
The sectors that could see lower quarterly earnings include transportation and logistics, agriculture and aquaculture, seafood processing, aviation, tourism, retail, and food and beverage, said securities companies.
Yuanta Securities Company said on the stock market news website at tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn that the Vietnamese economy and stock market had taken a hit from the deadly disease. The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter might be lower than in the first quarter of 2019 as the service, agriculture and trade sectors are performing poorly.
It may take a long time to restore investor confidence due to the unpredictability of the outbreak.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam’s GDP in 2020 could grow 6.09% if the virus is not brought under control within six months. However, the figure would be as high as 6.27% if the outbreak is over within the first quarter.
It is still too early to determine the cost of the Wuhan coronavirus impact on the global and Vietnamese economies. Being an open economy and a neighbor to China, Vietnam would have to count the cost of the outbreak as well, the securities firm said.
Other analysts hope that the disease would have short-term effect on the economy, saying that the falls of local stock prices are offering an opportunity for investors to look for cheap but high-quality shares.
On a positive note, the European Parliament approved the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Wednesday. Vietnam’s National Assembly is set to ratify it in May.
In the tariff reduction roadmap, tariffs on most yarn and fabric products will be immediately exempted while tariffs on garments will gradually fall to 0% over a period of six to eight years. Textiles, therefore, are among the sectors that have benefited from the agreement.
On Friday, the Hochiminh Stock Exchange lost 0.08% to end at 937.45 points as bank stocks weighed on the VN-Index. On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index climbed 1.43% to end the session at 109.74 points. SGT
Chair of the State Securities Commission (SSC) Tran Van Dung commented that the investors have ‘overreacted’ to the nCoV outbreak, believing that the market will recover when the epidemic peaks, as it happened with SARS and H5N1.
Despite its young age, the Vietnamese stock market has made great contributions to economic development in the last 20 years.