The Vietnam Economic Yearbook 2019 points out two scenarios for the country’s economy this year, according to which the growth rate will be over 6.5 percent in the new context of the world.
The book, made public at a conference held on May 29 jointly by the Vietnam National University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, focuses on the country’s economy on the threshold of the digital economy which poses mew challenges in face of the possibility of breaking the sectoral and market structure, together with the shift of the whole global systems of production, management and administration.
In the first scenario, Vietnam’s economy will grow by 6.56 percent, almost equal to the target set by the National Assembly. Nguyen Duc Thanh, Director of the Vietnam Economic Policy Research Institute and a member of the study group, held that this scenario is possible in the context of the unfavourable economic conditions in the world as a result of the escalation of the US – China trade war which leads to Vietnam’s more serious trade deficit with China.
According to the second scenario, which is more likely than the first, the growth will be 6.81 percent, equal to the NA-set target. This can be made possible by the impact of the growth last year, coupled with efforts by the Government in improving the competitiveness and productivity.
The book also predicts that inflation this year will be harder to control and can amount to 4 -5 percent as a result of many internal and external factors. In order to reign in inflation, management offices will have to maintain a close watch on the developments of prices in the second half of the year, and the State Bank of Vietnam will have to keep its cautious monetary policy in the time to come.
Besides analyzing and assessing the economic situation in the world and Vietnam, the book also assesses and predicts the future for Vietnam’s digital economy, and points out chances as well as challenges for Vietnamese enterprises and society in the new context.
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