Vietnam’s economy to expand 6.25% if coronavirus outbreak ends in Q1

Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to reach 6.25% this year if the outbreak of Covid-19 is contained within the first quarter, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Vietnam’s economy to expand 6.25% if coronavirus outbreak ends in Q1

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc speaks at a meeting in Hanoi on February 12. There is no reason to revise the growth target of 6.8% for this year, says the Government leader – PHOTO: VGP

At a February 12 meeting with Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc to examine revised growth scenarios in the wake of the pneumonia-causing virus, the ministry said the figure is 0.55 percentage point lower than the full-year target of 6.8% set earlier this year.

Vietnam might fail to achieve its economic growth target as the epidemic continues to take a heavy toll on the global economy, it noted.

If the disease is contained in the second quarter, the country’s economic growth will be 5.96% this year, 0.84 percentage points lower than the original.

The ministry cited Professor Warwick McKibbin from the Australian National University, who counted losses for the world economy due to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003 at US$40 billion and put the damage from Covid-19 at triple or quadruple this number, at US$120-160 billion.

The ministry also said Vietnam would suffer “significant impacts” due to its open economy, long border and busy trade with China, which have already manifested through the plummeting number of tourists, disrupted supply chain and backlogs of Vietnamese agricultural produce at Chinese border checkpoints.

The ministry further explained that the 6.8% target would be a tough task for Vietnam in the context of droughts, saltwater intrusion and the dual outbreaks of Covid-19 and bird flu.

The ministry pointed out that the novel coronavirus disease, which first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year, has spread rapidly with severe and unexpected effects. So far, the country has yet to forecast the “peak virus” stage, ending time, scale and range of impact.

The disease will make a full impact on the economy. In addition, the psychology of the public, especially the labor force, will be influenced, resulting in an immediate shortage of labor, disruption to supply chains and sluggish trade circulation and production.

To fulfill the preset target of 6.8% for 2020, according to the ministry, Vietnam must attain outstanding growth rates of 4.52% in quarter one, 6.66% in quarter two, 7.67% in quarter three and 7.5% in quarter four.

Gov’t not to cut growth target

Speaking at the meeting, PM Phuc stated that the Government’s best efforts to combat the Covid-19 disease have been paying off and the outbreak is still under control.

 

“However, we cannot merely focus on fighting the disease, while neglecting other duties like ensuring national security and defense or social welfare,” he said.

Amid the unpredictable developments surrounding the outbreak, if Vietnam is to continue to work as normal, the country’s growth will certainly suffer, the Cabinet leader noted, calling for a “higher degree of efforts and more detailed and timely measures that can cope with the situation.”

He explained that there is no reason to revise the growth target and asked the Ministry of Planning and Investment to draw up plans to keep the rate at 6.8%, especially for the second half of the year.

He stressed that there are fights that should be waged on both fronts – against the Covid-19 and the “virus of stagnancy,” where using the disease as an excuse for inactivity could undermine efforts to overcome the worst effects of the disease.

Factories, supermarkets, tourist sites and national relic sites should still operate as usual, according to the PM.

He stated that measures should be adopted to address difficulties in all sectors from commerce to tourism or in import-export activities, underlining the need for more robust economic restructuring and for considering other options, such as using stimulus packages, accelerating disbursement and lowering interest rates and fees.

Necessities such as electricity, health, education and other public services will not be subject to any price increases for the moment, he stressed.

He added that prioritizing the domestic market and expanding imports and exports to other international markets will also be high on this year’s agenda.

Vietnam has so far reported 16 cases of infections, seven of which have been cleared of the virus and discharged from hospitals. The northern province of Vinh Phuc has been hit hardest with 11 infection cases. A local village of some 10,000 people was put into lockdown due to the cluster of cases there.

The northern neighbor China on Thursday reported 254 new deaths and a spike in the number of virus cases registered at 15,152. The total number of deaths from the outbreak stood at 1,367, with the total number of confirmed cases mounting to 59,804, according to an Associated Press report. SGT

More than 800 firms stop operating or scale down because of coronavirus

More than 800 firms stop operating or scale down because of coronavirus

More than 800 businesses and 8,700 employees have been affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, according to the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs.

Bad debts may increase amid coronavirus outbreak

Bad debts may increase amid coronavirus outbreak

Bankers anticipate that the coronavirus outbreak will affect the business of many of their clients.

 
 

Other News

.
Commercial centres deserted in Hanoi amidst COVID-19 fears
Commercial centres deserted in Hanoi amidst COVID-19 fears
PHOTOSicon  22/03/2020 

With fears surrounding the potential spread of COVID-19 gripping Hanoi, the majority of commercial centres located in the capital have been increasingly quiet in recent days with local people cautious about going outside.

VN shrimp segment above water
VN shrimp segment above water
FEATUREicon  22/03/2020 

Despite the complexities of COVID-19, shrimp exporters and processors still see a bright future ahead thanks to new markets, and boosting exports to traditional markets which have cut imports from China.

Vietnam makes it into top 5 economic freedom gainers in Asia-Pacific region
Vietnam makes it into top 5 economic freedom gainers in Asia-Pacific region
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

With the strides in opening its economy, Vietnam has improved its ranking to 105th on the 2020 Index of Economic Freedom by The Heritage Foundation.

Firms to adhere to anti-dumping law
Firms to adhere to anti-dumping law
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

Pham Duy Khuong, managing director of ASL Law, talked about some important contents related to anti-dumping laws that foreign companies should pay attention to when digging into the Vietnamese market.

VN firms resolute in business goals despite COVID-19 impacts
VN firms resolute in business goals despite COVID-19 impacts
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

Many companies have performed well in the first two months of the year despite the COVID-19 outbreak and insist on keeping business targets unchanged.

VN rail sector finding way back on track
VN rail sector finding way back on track
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

Despite strong efforts, state-owned Vietnam Railways may face a downturn this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and challenges from legal barriers. 

State capital commission to work with struggling mega-projects
State capital commission to work with struggling mega-projects
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

The Commission for the Management of State Capital at Enterprises (CMSC) must continue to support managers of 12 struggling mega-projects under the Ministry of Trade and Industry with the State’s capital investment.

Real estate firms calls for Government support
Real estate firms calls for Government support
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

The HCMC Real Estate Association has urged the Government to add the property industry to the list of those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak and are eligible for a five-month postponement of VAT and land-use fee payments.

EU, US yet to limit garment imports from Vietnam due to COVID-19
EU, US yet to limit garment imports from Vietnam due to COVID-19
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh said on March 20 that EU and US authorities have yet to limit the import of garment products from Vietnam.

Textile and footwear firms go local to survive pandemic
Textile and footwear firms go local to survive pandemic
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

While most textile and footwear enterprises in Vietnam struggled to find alternative sources of raw materials to maintain production, some with local sources have survived during the COVID-19 pandemic.

US has no plan to suspend import of Vietnamese garment-textiles: ambassador
US has no plan to suspend import of Vietnamese garment-textiles: ambassador
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

The US Government has no plan to suspend the import of Vietnamese garments-textiles, said Vietnamese Ambassador to the US Ha Kim Ngoc.

Covid-19 crisis can offer opportunity for Vietnam to expand role in global supply chain
Covid-19 crisis can offer opportunity for Vietnam to expand role in global supply chain
BUSINESSicon  22/03/2020 

The difficulties in the global pandemic are opportunities for Vietnam to expand its role in the global supply chain.

Vietnam’s fish, shrimp exports no longer can enjoy preferences from the US
Vietnam’s fish, shrimp exports no longer can enjoy preferences from the US
BUSINESSicon  23/03/2020 

Vietnam’s seafood industry has received bad news: it can no longer enjoy the preferences offered by the US to developing countries.

BUSINESS NEWS HEADLINES MARCH 21
BUSINESS NEWS HEADLINES MARCH 21
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

State Bank approves restructuring plan for Saigon Commercial Bank

BUSINESS NEWS HEADLINES MARCH 20
BUSINESS NEWS HEADLINES MARCH 20
BUSINESSicon  20/03/2020 

Garment export value hits US$5.3 billion during Jan-Feb

EVFTA expected to create great pressure on domestic logistics firms
EVFTA expected to create great pressure on domestic logistics firms
BUSINESSicon  20/03/2020 

The expected execution of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement in 2020 will create great pressure on Vietnamese logistics businesses, insiders said.

Ministry cuts, exempts fees of 15 securities services to support stock market
Ministry cuts, exempts fees of 15 securities services to support stock market
BUSINESSicon  20/03/2020 

The Ministry of Finance has cut the fees of nine securities services and exempted fees for six others as from March 19 as part of efforts to support the stock market amid the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.

How are Vietnamese businesses managing during the Covid-19 crisis?
How are Vietnamese businesses managing during the Covid-19 crisis?
BUSINESSicon  20/03/2020 

While tourism, transportation and F&B sectors are suffering heavily from Covid-19, the impact on other business fields has been less severe.

VN digital payment market reshaped because of new rules
VN digital payment market reshaped because of new rules
BUSINESSicon  21/03/2020 

A new payments market will be created with the presence of more players, including commercial banks, fintechs, telcos and foreign investors.

Supporting industries secure more orders following Chinese supply disruptions
Supporting industries secure more orders following Chinese supply disruptions
BUSINESSicon  19/03/2020 

A number of local firms in supporting industries have been receiving more orders from foreign partners due to the coronavirus outbreak disrupting supply chains in China.

 
 
 
Leave your comment on an article

OR QUICK LOGIN