VietNamNet spoke recently with Executive Director of the Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition Social Enterprise (VIETSE) Ngo Thi To Nhien about the draft development plan of the power industry for the 2021-2035 period (Power Plan 8). 

Could you tell us about the most preliminary assessments in the Power Plan 8 that has just been announced by the Ministry of Industry and Trade?

Proper planning and harmonious balance of interests are always difficult for all countries, not just Vietnam. Photo: VGP

The draft includes thousands of pages of explanations and appendices, which are very detailed and overall. It can be said that the document compilers listened to critics and put in the updates and corrections carefully.

Certainly, given the general process of a national plan, this 3rd draft is not the final one. I think we have time to continue to research, consider and refine it.

Balance the demand

In your opinion, what should be considered first?

Demand balance has always been an important input for the development planning of the power sector. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully calculate the demand for power in the future to handle the problem of balance of supply and demand and also ensure energy security for the country.

How does the contribution of economic sectors affect electricity demand?

We all know that the growth of the electricity industry needs to stick closely to the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP is correlated with the proportion of three basic industries: industry - construction, trade - service, and agriculture.

Industry - construction always has the highest demand for energy, especially in the previous period, when Vietnam developed heavy industries, which always accounted for approximately 50% of the country's electricity consumption.

For a developing country like Vietnam, heavy industry development used to be an important consumer industry, so we are accepting a commercial electricity elasticity/GDP ratio of 1.24%, which goes with the burden on environmental impact… It would be a big question for the future of the heavy industry.

I think that the Resolution of the 13th Party Congress is an important milestone to define a strategic vision for the future. The goals up to 2035 such as becoming a modern industrial country, changing the growth model, applying technology achievements or developing the digital economy are timely and appropriate and a guideline for the development direction in the coming years.

The question is, with that strategic vision of the political system, are the numbers given in the Power Plan 8 still relevant? For example, the ratio in GDP of industry - construction will be around 45%, while electricity consumption will increase to approximately 58% in the period 2030-2035.

If the current pace of development and outdated technology are maintained, heavy industries will soon face a big problem: consumption of a lot of energy, but its contributions to the economy are inadequate, causing consequences and pressure on infrastructure systems, the environment and society.

On the contrary, the commercial and service sectors, like information technology, are being oriented for future development. These are the fields that Vietnam is able to "take a short cut ", which bring about high economic efficiency, improve the quality of human resources, have little impact on the environment, and at the same time make use of the technology using energy efficiency.

That is not to mention that agriculture is being re-invested in a methodical, synchronous way with new technologies from cultivation to husbandry to processing.

I believe that these development directions need to be more clearly reflected in the Power Plan 8. The change of economic structure will be the driving force for Vietnam to use energy more efficiently and reduce the pressure on development of power generation, and promote high-tech development that consumes less energy for a cleaner environment.

On the right track

So, what are the sectors that the energy industry should pay attention to?

There is a relatively new sector in Vietnam that is expected to be a large source of additional charge and has not been mentioned in this plan. That is the smart transportation system, electric vehicles such as electric buses, high-speed trains ...

In Vietnam, some companies have invested in the production of electric vehicles such as buses, passenger cars, motorbikes and bicycles... In my opinion, this is an industry of high potential in the next 10 years but has not received adequate attention.

Not being properly assessed on demand, there is no preparation for the distribution grid infrastructure. The potential explosion of these vehicles in the future is very great, and at the same time puts considerable pressure on the electrical system.

Development of electric buses are planned and piloted in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. With 100-200 vehicles with battery capacity of approximately 300kWh for the two cities, the demand for electricity and pressure on transmission lines is negligible.

However, if more electric vehicles are put into use, the situation will be different. That is not taking into account personal cars that can reach up to hundreds of thousands of units being charged at the same time... Electric car battery charging will be a serious problem and we need to set out to have proper preparation.

In addition, North-South high-speed train development policy is considered, but the issue of energy seems to have not been taken into account.

Perhaps, the power sector development plan in particular and the energy transition in Vietnam will still have many obstacles?

Proper planning and harmonious balance of interests are always difficult for all countries, not just Vietnam.

However, I think we are on the right track and optimistic about the growth and energy transition in general. And during that process, it is necessary to listen to state management agencies, the constructive criticism of society and the companionship of the business.

Tu Giang - Lan Anh

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