VietNamNet Bridge – The latest analysis by Vietnam Report has pointed out that most of the Vietnamese enterprises keep pessimistic about their business performance in 2013.
Vietnam Report on December 4 released the Policy Debate No. 6, a periodic
policy research report. The research work is one of the preparatory activities
for the official launching of the 2012 VNR 500 – the list of the 500 biggest
Vietnamese enterprises, slated for December 11.
Most enterprises are meeting big difficulties and feel pessimistic about their
business performance in 2013.
Up to 50 percent of the managers of V1000 enterprises (the 1000 biggest
corporate income tax payers) said their business results in 2012 are worse than
in 2011.
Only 19 percent said they had a better 2012 than 2011. Meanwhile, 100 percent of
the enterprises in the finance and banking sector said 2012 was worse. Sixty
percent of the enterprises in the material & construction sector said the same
thing. Meanwhile, the proportions were lower in other business fields.
Especially, the enterprises believe that the situation would not be improved in
2013, which means that they would have to encounter with difficulties longer.
Fifty-five percent of enterprises believe that the conditions would not be much
better in 2013. The number of businesses believing that 2013 would be worse is
lower than the number of businesses believing in the opposite thing.
Two thirds of the polled enterprises said they do not think the national economy
would recover in 2013.
Only 33 percent believe the national economy would begin recovering in the
second half of the next year, and only one percent expects the recovery in the
next six months.
As such, the optimism about the economic recovery has decreased if compared with
August, when 60 percent of businesses said they hoped the economy would regain
its strength in 2013 or sooner.
2013 would be another tough year for businesses
The uncertainties in the business environment, the declines in the consumption
demand and the material price increases are the three biggest concerns for
businesses in 2013.
Besides, the enterprises have also expressed their concerns about the policy
changes and the difficulties in bank loan access in 2013.
However, though keeping pessimistic about the prospect of the national economy
and the challenges awaiting them ahead, most of the enterprises have confidence
on the government’s commitments to fight against inflation.
The enterprises said they have confidence on the Prime Minister’s message about
the one-digit inflation in 2013, released when giving the interview to Bloomberg
in Hanoi on November 28.
Only 19 percent of businesses think that the 2013’s inflation rate would be at
two digit level.
Especially, up to 76 percent of businesses said they plan to borrow money from
banks to run their production in 2013. The figure shows a considerable
improvement in terms of businesses’ confidence in the banking system, if noting
that 60 percent of CEOs said banks have not helped businesses in a survey
conducted in August.
However, up to 50 percent of businesses said they would only rely on their own
capital in 2013.
More than 90 percent of business managers believe that the restructuring has
been undertaken at Vietnamese enterprises. The majority of enterprises plan to
keep the same labor force and capital scale in 2013. The number of enterprises
which plan to increase the labor force is three times higher than the number of
enterprises which plan to cut down the workforce.
Vietnam Report