According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam exported 902,000 tons of coffee in the first half of the year, worth $3.22 billion. The figures represent a 10.5 percent decrease in quantity, but a 34.6 percent increase in export turnover. This was attributed to an export price surge of 50.4 percent compared with the same period last year.

Vietnam in the first half exported 129,000 tons of pepper, a decrease of 10 percent, and earned $565.3 million, an increase of 27 percent.

The coffee price in the domestic market soared by 320 percent at the end of the coffee crop compared with the beginning. The pepper price increased by two times just within three weeks.

Earlier this year, pepper was traded at VND80,000-82,000 per kilogram. On June 12, the price peaked at VND180,000 per kilogram, a record high since 2016. In recent days, pepper was traded at VND152,000-155,000 per kilogram.

Pepper export prices also skyrocketed. Vietnam’s black pepper is being traded at $6,400-6,900 per ton, up 67.5 percent over the beginning of the year, while white pepper is at $9,500 per ton, up 66.7 percent.

Like pepper, the coffee price jumped from VND78,900 per kilogram in January to VND134,000 on April 29. At this time, coffee beans are priced at VND120,000 per kilogram.

Though pepper and coffee prices have been fluctuating, they have been standing high. Analysts said farmers can pocket big money, noting that coffee production costs are just VND36,000 per kilogram, and pepper VND80,000.

According to the Department of Crop Production, Vietnam’s total coffee growing area in the 2023-2024 crop is 709,041 hectares. Drought and insects decreased the coffee output by 20 percent compared with the previous crop to 1.47 million tons, a 4-year low.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) predicted that the Robusta output of the 2024-2025 crop would be 1.28-1.35 million tons only, down 20 percent compared with the previous crop.

As for pepper, this year’s output is predicted to drop by 10 percent to 170,000 tons, a 5-year low. Other countries have also predicted an output decrease due to El Nino and reduced cultivation area.

Deputy chair of Chu Se Pepper Association Hoang Phuoc Binh believes the new pepper price increase cycle has begun and will last 10 years. The price is expected to reach VND350,000-400,000 per kilogram.

Phan Minh Thong, chair of Phuc Sinh Group also predicted that the coffee price will continue escalating as the world is witnessing big displacement in farming. Many farmers around the world no longer want to do agriculture.

Tam An