At the trading session on August 7, TPB shares of Tien Phong Bank (TPBank) hit the ceiling, gaining VND1,250 to VND19,450 per share, with a buy surplus of over 2.1 million units. A total of nearly 73.7 million TPB shares were traded, with foreign investors buying over 9 million units and selling nearly 3 million units.

VPB shares of VPBank also reached the maximum allowed increase, adding VND1,850 to VND28,950 per share. During the session, nearly 62.6 million VPB shares were traded. Foreign investors bought nearly 19.7 million units while selling about 4 million units.

Most other bank stocks also saw price increases and recorded active trading.

Since early July, TPBank has risen 45 percent, VPBank 57 percent, and SHB from VND12,800 to VND18,850 per share (up 47 percent). Such gains, over 45 percent, and even surpassing 57 percent, in just over a month are rarely seen with bank stocks in the last 20 years.

Historically, banking stocks were considered “king stocks,” attracting attention from both institutional to individual investors. These core stocks do not fluctuate sharply, soaring or plunging like real estate, securities, retail, or construction material stocks.

This 1.5-fold price surge in just over a month, with many new records since the beginning of the second quarter, took place in a rather special context and it may be a long time before there is such a good supportive environment for bank shares.

This is seen as the main force pulling the VN-Index to set new historic highs after surpassing the 1,500-point threshold.

On August 7, the VN-Index rose 8.1 points (+0.51 percent) to 1,581.81 points, the highest in 25 years. Liquidity remained very high, reaching $1.5-3 billion in recent sessions, with bank shares recording unprecedented trading volumes.

Besides TPBank with over 73.6 million units traded and VPBank with nearly 62.6 million units, SHB reported nearly 92.4 million shares traded, Techcombank (TCB) 30 million shares, HDBank (HDB) over 24.7 million units, MBBank (MBB) nearly 27 million units, ACB over 19 million units, and VIB nearly 18.7 million units.

As such, the banking stock group has become the focal point leading the stock market. Their market capitalization reached VND2.6 trillion, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total market capitalization. Private bank stocks saw sharper price increases than state-owned banks.

Bright prospects ahead?

Banking stocks are benefiting from the government’s economic growth promotion policies. The government is injecting significant funds through monetary and fiscal policies to ensure economic growth above 8 percent. Strong business results and banks’ efforts to expand their scale have also driven stock price increases.

According to SSI, banks, along with retail, fertilizers, utilities, and industrial parks, outperformed expectations in Q2. Banks remain the primary growth driver, contributing 44 percent to total after-tax profit for parent company shareholders and 28 percent to this growth.

Additionally, these stocks are heavily held by professional investors and supported by securities firms’ margin lending. A significant cash flow comes from securities firms, many backed by banks.

Estimates show that total securities lending by the top 40 securities firms had reached a record VND285 trillion by the end of Q2.

On August 6, the PM issued a directive requesting the State Bank to pilot removing credit growth quotas from 2026, coordinating with fiscal and other macroeconomic policies to boost growth. This is seen as a positive signal for the stock market in general and private banks in particular.

In an earlier report this year, VinaCapital stated that the banking sector benefits most when Vietnam promotes domestic growth. The organization predicted a 17 percent increase in listed banks’ profits in 2025.

Besides economic growth policies, banks also benefit from improved asset quality through strong digitization and AI applications to optimize costs and increase non-interest income from services like fees and bancassurance.

With the potential for Vietnam’s stock market to be upgraded in September, investors expect foreign capital to flow into banking stocks. Recently, foreign investors have heavily bought stocks like HDBank and SHB.

However, banks are facing risks from an unevenly recovering real estate market, net interest margin competition, and potential bad debts at some mid-sized banks. Additionally, global trade tensions, such as tariff risks, could impact the economy and, consequently, the banking sector.

Manh Ha