Researchers warn of risks for Vietnam in 2021

The uncertainties of the global economy, the new Covid-19 mutation, and risks from lawsuits and trade remedies will have an impact on Vietnam’s economy in 2021, experts say.

Researchers warn of risks for Vietnam in 2021

A report on Vietnam’s economy in 2020 and prospects in 2021 was released by the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) on January 15, showing a bright outlook for Vietnam’s economy this year.

CIEM researchers described two scenarios, based on assessment of agencies and institutions on the world’s economic prospects and Vietnam’s economic development, as well as different economic policies.

Vietnam’s GDP growth rate may reach 5.98 percent in 2021 under Scenario 1, and 6.46 percent under Scenario 2.

The export turnover in 2021 is predicted to grow by 4.23 percent under Scenario 1 and 5.06 percent under Scenario 2.

The trade surplus is predicted to be at $5.49 billion and $7.24 billion, respectively, while the inflation rates would be 3.51 percent and 3.78 percent.

According to CIEM, Vietnam’s macroeconomic performance in 2021 will be influenced by the world economy, which is still uncertain. The US is expected to continue to apply measures to restrain China’s economy, trade and technology, and may team up with some partner countries to implement measures.

Trade conflicts among large economies will prompt international corporations to relocate their production bases to avoid high tariffs. This will be both a challenge and opportunity for Vietnam.

Second, Covid-19 and mutations remain unpredictable with the risk of outbreaks. This will result in an increase in logistics costs for manufacturing and import/export activities.

 

Third, many economies have launched big bailouts, and there is no coordination of the bailouts at the global level. Analysts warn that this may cause high risks for the world financial market and the global debt situation.

Fourth, the 4.0 industry revolution and digital transformation are proceeding rapidly which has affected the development of Vietnam’s businesses and the Vietnamese market.

Fifth, the capability of continuing to carry out substantial reforms in the investment and business environment will affect foreign investors’ decisions on whether to scale up investments.

Sixth, domestic consumption demand is expected to increase rapidly, and businesses may focus more on the domestic market.

Seventh, while hoping for positive impact from EVFTA, Vietnam may have to face lawsuits and trade remedies, not just in the US market.

The Central Economic Committee, when reviewing economic development in the last five years, said the economy continued growing rapidly, 6 percent per annum. The economy has a scale of $340 billion, which has increased by 1.4 times, ranking fourth in ASEAN. 

Luong Bang

How the most prominent political event in Vietnam in 2021 could affect its economy

How the most prominent political event in Vietnam in 2021 could affect its economy

The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (January 25-February 2, 2021) is one of the most prominent political events this year.

Private economy - pillar of the country’s development

Private economy - pillar of the country’s development

Government should take measures to protect private enterprises in key economic sectors to enhance their international competitiveness.

 
 

Other News

.
Curbs fail to faze South Korean M&A
Curbs fail to faze South Korean M&A
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

According to data from MergerMarket, which is a business development tool designed specifically for the M&A sector, South Korean investors have carried out 69 M&A deals in Vietnam since 2005, with a total value of $5.1 billion.

Inconsistencies deter power plan feasibility
Inconsistencies deter power plan feasibility
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

Power source development in recent years has been at odds with load distribution, and many coal-fired power plants expected to operate in the last five years are behind schedule.

Vietnam vows to stamp out unregulated fishing
Vietnam vows to stamp out unregulated fishing
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

The Vietnamese government is doing its utmost to prevent illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing practices, helped along by moves in Europe to remove warnings on the country’s activities.

Gigantic lifeline en route for essential businesses
Gigantic lifeline en route for essential businesses
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

In a bid to help the country recover after the economy grew at a very low level in the third quarter, a huge financial support package is to be offered to enterprises whose performance is a backbone of economic growth.

Bank loans rise despite pandemic
Bank loans rise despite pandemic
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

Despite being strongly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, bank loans in the first nine months of this year kept rising compared to the same period last year, deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Dao Minh Tu said.

GDP growth target is hard to reach: Minister of Planning and Investment
GDP growth target is hard to reach: Minister of Planning and Investment
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

Minister of Planning and Investment (MPI) Nguyen Chi Dung calculated economic growth in the whole of 2021 at between 3 and 3.5 per cent, but also said such a target will be difficult to reach.

Positive signs for year-end car shopping
Positive signs for year-end car shopping
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

Car sales in Vietnam increased by 52 percent last month after five consecutive months of decline, showing positive signs for the car market at the end of the year.

WB lowers Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 2-2.5 percent this year
WB lowers Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 2-2.5 percent this year
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for this year has been lowered to 2-2.5 percent, according to the World Bank's October 2021 Vietnam Macro Monitoring.

Vietnam’s rice price surges, surpasses that of Thailand
Vietnam’s rice price surges, surpasses that of Thailand
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

The export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice has soared recently, surpassing that of Thailand and far outstripping the rice prices of India and Pakistan, according to the Vietnam Food Association.

Local authorities urged to set green corridor for domestic flights
Local authorities urged to set green corridor for domestic flights
FEATUREicon  13/10/2021 

The first commercial flights have been provided in the new normal period. However, the application of different regulations in different localities have caused problems.

Vietnamese capable of making high tech products
Vietnamese capable of making high tech products
FEATUREicon  14/10/2021 

Many Vietnamese enterprises are diligently researching and developing Make in Vietnam products with high technology content.

Commodity exports via e-commerce promoted during COVID-19 pandemic
Commodity exports via e-commerce promoted during COVID-19 pandemic
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

Representatives from State management bodies and companies speak about the advantages and challenges Vietnamese businesses face in e-commerce, especially commodity exports.

VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS OCTOBER 13
VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS OCTOBER 13
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

Vietnam grasps opportunities to expand agricultural export market

Vietnam to further develop biotechnology industry by 2030
Vietnam to further develop biotechnology industry by 2030
BUSINESSicon  14/10/2021 

The Government has approved a plan to further develop the biotechnology industry in Vietnam, levelling it up to that of advanced industrial countries by 2030. 

Tax cut proposed to stabilise domestic petrol price
Tax cut proposed to stabilise domestic petrol price
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

Calls have been made for tax cuts to stabilise domestic fuel prices as global oil prices see continual increases.

PM says Gov't to stand with businesses during pandemic
PM says Gov't to stand with businesses during pandemic
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh congratulated and sent his best regards to all Vietnamese entrepreneurs to mark Vietnam Entrepreneurs' Day (October 13) during a meeting in Hanoi yesterday. 

SOE equitisation slow this year due to COVID-19
SOE equitisation slow this year due to COVID-19
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

The outbreak of COVID-19 in many localities has delayed the equitisation of State-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Unemployment, underemployment unprecedentedly high
Unemployment, underemployment unprecedentedly high
BUSINESSicon  13/10/2021 

The number of employed people in Q3/2021 fell sharply compared to the previous quarter and the same period of last year, while unemployment and underemployment rates increased to an all-time high.

Intel, Samsung eye fully running HCM City plants in late November
Intel, Samsung eye fully running HCM City plants in late November
BUSINESSicon  12/10/2021 

Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. are both aiming to resume full operations of their HCM City plants by the end of November.

FDI inflow into Vietnam still on upturn trend
FDI inflow into Vietnam still on upturn trend
BUSINESSicon  12/10/2021 

Despite impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam still rose 4.4 percent year on year in the first nine months of 2021 to 22.15 billion USD.

 
 
 
Leave your comment on an article

OR QUICK LOGIN