This is an urgent move as the challenges of 2026 differ markedly from previous ones, shaped by overlapping external shocks ranging from geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains to surging logistics and raw material costs, exchange-rate pressures, and increasingly complex tariff barriers in global markets.

Logistics pressures and exchange-rate challenges

Recent market developments reveal mounting cost burdens eroding business resilience. Conflicts in the Middle East and prolonged maritime security risks in the Red Sea have disrupted global shipping routes, forcing exports to Europe and the US East Coast to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending delivery times and sharply increasing freight costs.

Dao Trong Khoa, Chairman of the Vietnam Logistics Business Association (VLA), noted that the logistics shock extends beyond rising war-risk and peak-season surcharges. Disrupted shipping schedules have slowed container circulation, leaving import-export firms increasingly vulnerable. Meanwhile, the strengthening US dollar against the Vietnamese dong has inflated import costs and freight payments - largely denominated in USD, further compressing already thin profit margins and heightening risks of cash-flow disruptions.

Key export sectors including wood products, textiles, footwear, steel and electronic components are also facing growing trade defence pressures.

Chu Thang Trung, Deputy Director of the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said stricter global requirements on origin verification and financial transparency represent a test of compliance capacity rather than a closure of export markets. Enterprises are therefore urged to strengthen risk management systems, align accounting practices with international standards, and maintain transparent supply-chain documentation.

The period of export growth driven primarily by low-cost labour and simple processing is gradually ending, making higher localisation rates and domestic material supply increasingly important safeguards.

Strategic adaptation amid uncertainty

Amid volatility, proactive adaptation has become a defining factor for business sustainability. Major export industries are restructuring strategies to maintain competitiveness.

The wood industry, heavily affected by tariff barriers and declining US demand, is actively diversifying markets. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association (VIFOREST), said businesses are expanding into markets such as the Middle East, India and Australia while leveraging opportunities from new-generation free trade agreements including EVFTA and CPTPP.

At the same time, enterprises are shifting towards higher-value interior products and sustainably certified timber aligned with global green consumption trends. Current pressures, he noted, are accelerating industry restructuring and encouraging innovation.

By tapping niche markets and maximising advantages from Vietnam’s 16 effective free trade agreements, businesses can reduce dependence on single markets and better distribute risks geographically.

Institutional support for sustainable growth

Enterprises’ adaptation efforts require strong policy support. Government measures to maintain macroeconomic stability, flexibly manage exchange rates and remove institutional bottlenecks are acting as key stabilisers for the economy.

Hoang Quang Phong, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), stressed that while geopolitical uncertainties and trade barriers remain external variables, internal governance capacity is within enterprises’ control. He emphasised that digital and green transformation (ESG) should be viewed as long-term investments rather than additional costs.

Businesses adopting low-emission production models and transparent governance standards will be better positioned to meet emerging carbon-related trade requirements in major markets such as Europe and the US.

The VCCI will continue proposing supportive policies, including extended tax relief and improved access to affordable credit, enabling enterprises to invest in technology and prepare for the next recovery cycle.

Ultimately, disruptions stemming from supply-chain fragmentation, rising logistics costs, exchange-rate pressures and tariff barriers are reshaping the competitive landscape. For Vietnamese enterprises, sustainable progress lies in shifting from contract manufacturing to value creation, and from selling available products to delivering transparent, green and sustainable solutions aligned with global demand.

With resilient entrepreneurship and continued institutional support, Vietnamese businesses are expected not only to weather current challenges but also strengthen their position in global value chains./. VNA