VietNamNet Bridge – Economists have warned that if China imposes economic sanctions on Southeast Asian countries, such actions would end up being a double-edged sword.

China wants to deploy paramilitary and military vessels to threaten neighboring countries, and would like to impose economic sanctions to “punish” the countries with which it has conflicts.

In 2012, China imposed a ban on banana imports from the Philippines, citing health protection. However, it was clear to everyone that this was a Chinese reaction to events related to the China-Philippines territorial disputes.

Two years before, in 2010, China prohibited imports of Norwegian tuna after the Oslo Nobel Prize Commission decided to grant the Nobel Peace Prize to Ai Weiwei despite Beijing’s protest.

The US newswire Associated Press has quoted political analysts as saying that China may play the “economic sanction” game again with ASEAN countries which, to some extent, have been economically dependent on China.

This means that China may prohibit the import/export of some products to and from the countries which are “hostile” in its eyes.

If any of the countries begin legal proceedings against China in the international court about the issues related to territorial disputes, China may repeatedly impose a “banana sanction” as it did with the Philippines in 2012.

Beijing believes that its economic war declaration will force neighboring countries to shrink back when they plan to do something that makes China “upset”.

However, economists have warned that the economic war will also harm China because it could lead to resistance from other countries. Over the long term, the “war” may turn China into an isolated economy, and lead to boycotts around the world.

AP has also quoted Jason Morris- Jung, an expert about Vietnamese studies at the South East Asia Research Institute, as saying that imposing economic sanctions as a weapon on neighboring countries could be seen as a double-edged knife.

“If China punishes one seller in Vietnam, it will also hurt one buyer in China, and vice versa,” the expert said.

The Chinese ban on Filipino bananas caused major difficulties for Filipino banana growers. However, farmers in the countries overcame the difficulties when they found new export markets or shifted to grow other crops.

Meanwhile, Chinese consumers had to buy more expensive bananas from other markets.

Nguyen Duc Thanh, director of the Vietnam Economic Policy Research Center, said that the current tensions in the East Sea may cause temporary difficulties for Vietnamese enterprises, which have many Chinese partners.

However, as Vietnamese saying goes, “difficulties will bring wisdom”, they will find solutions to escape reliance on China.

The director of a garment company said that companies in the industry had already been looking for alternative supply sources for years to ease their reliance on China.

However, current conditions make them even more determined to find alternative input material  imports.

Vietnamese businesses will also have to upgrade by improving their product quality, and by exporting products to the choosy European and North American markets to earn big money, instead of China, which is a more easy-to-please market that offers more modest profits.

Mot The Gioi