VietNamNet Bridge - Vietnam is expected to have 3.5 million surplus tons of coal in 2015 and 2 million tons in 2016, which it would export for dollars. However, from 2016, it will have to import coal to run thermal power plants as domestic production cannot satisfy demand.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), the commercial coal output would be 40.03 million tons in 2015. The figures would be 43.77 million tons in 2016 and 50.38 million tons by 2020, before reaching 57.5 million tons by 2030.

Of these, coal products which can satisfy the requirements for electricity generation account for 60-95 percent.

If comparing the figures with the domestic demand estimates – 36.34 million tons for this year, 41.77 million tons for the next year, 74.908 million tons for 2020 and 143.65 million tons for 2030 -- Vietnam would have 3.5 million tons in excess in 2015 and 2 million tons in 2016.

Vietnam remains a coal exporter. However, things will be different from 2016, when it will have to import coal as domestic output will not be big enough to run thermal power plants.

Vietnam now exports anthracite coal and it will have to import it in the future.

Tran Viet Ngai, chair of the Vietnam Energy Association, said the coal output exploited by the Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) is on the decrease, while coal demand for power plant is on the rise.

Ngai said Vinacomin has contacted many coal exporters from Australia, Indonesia, India, China and Japan, to discuss the purchase of coal from 2017. However, no decision has been made.

The biggest problem, according to Ngai, is that it is not easy to find coal products suitable for power plants in the south. The 600 MW plants cannot use anthracite coal, but they need other kinds of coal with higher quality.

Nguyen Thanh Son, a renowned expert, when asked why Vietnam sells anthracite coal and plans to import the same coal in the future, noted that the coal mining industry is being controlled by groups of interests.

He said that when the oil price goes up, the coal miner exploits coal for sale at any cost, but when the oil price goes down, it does not exploit coal and tells coal users to import coal.

“Vinacomin is the only Vietnamese corporation that exports coal – a profitable business. Meanwhile, it does not intend to become the exclusive coal importer because this is an attractive business,” he explained.

Son warned that Vietnamese businesses’ competitiveness would weaken after Vietnam becomes an energy importer.

Kim Chi