The General Department of Customs (GDC) reported that Vietnam exported 80,000 tons of coffee in November, worth $252 million, down 37.9 percent in quantity and 17.5 percent in value compared with November 2022.

Prior to that, Vietnam’s coffee export volume in October was at a record low, just 43,720 tons, valued at $157.6 million, which meant a 48.8 percent decrease in quantity and 28 percent in value compared with the same period last year.

The total coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 reached 1.38 million tons, valued at $3.54 billion, down 12.9 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

Vietnam’s coffee exports have been sold at high prices, $3,148 per ton in November, or 32.8 percent higher than that of November 2022. The average export price in the last 11 months was $2,570 per ton, up 11.9 percent.

Vietnam’s coffee prices have been increasing steadily with a new record set in October with $3,603 per ton. However, companies have exported nearly all products they have, and stockpiles are very small. The export volumes in the last two months dropped to a deep low.

Farmers in the Central Highlands are harvesting coffee. The coffee prices at which merchants are collecting from farmers are near the VND60,000 per kilogram threshold. With these prices, farmers can make good profits.

Coffee traders said current weather conditions are favorable for harvesting of the new crop. However, the harvesting speed is not enough to satisfy demand and fulfill old delayed orders.

Robusta coffee prices are predicted to increase in the time to come because of short supply and increased demand in the year-end sale season.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that Robusta supply from major exporters in Southeast Asia is likely to decrease. This has prompted funds and speculators to come back to futures contracts and increase purchases. However, the volume ordered remains low because of the fear of interest rate policy.

The US predicted that Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop would decrease to 27.8 million bags from 31.3 million bags in May 2023.

Meanwhile, Indonesian coffee output has been forecast to decrease by 18.14 percent to 9.7 million bags.

Do Ha Nam, deputy chair of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said that the coffee price once hit its peak of VND70,000 per kilogram, predicting that the prices may even increase further because of the scanty supply.

Tam An