The indicator is very important to reduce the mortality rate and help the healthcare system avoid overloading if another outbreak occurs.

Reports show that the mortality rate is highest among people aged 50 and over, accounting for 81 percent of total deaths from Covid-19.

However, with the current pandemic developments and the vaccination situation in HCM City, which is striving to gradually reopen the economy from October 1, this is a goal that is difficult to reach.

At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam and the Government’s special taskforce on September 27, HCM City Mayor Phan Van Mai admitted it would be difficult to follow the guidance.

The city wants to replace "at least 80 percent of people 50 and over have been fully vaccinated" with "at least 80 percent of people aged 65 and over, or 50 percent of people aged 50 and over, have been fully vaccinated".

According to HCM City Center for Disease Control (HCDC), as of September 25, 1,107,266 people aged 65 and over and people with underlying health conditions have been vaccinated at least once.

The total vaccine injections in the city were 9,441,815 as of September 25.

According to eight business associations that have sent petitions to the Government, with the requirement "at least 80 percent of people aged over 50 have been fully vaccinated", HCM City would still be classified at the fourth level of pandemic for another 2-3 months. If so, this will seriously affect the city’s economic development.

Associations have proposed that fully vaccinated people should be allowed to go to work. It would be better to refer to the number of hospital beds and the ICU bed occupancy rate when developing pandemic control measures, they said.

HCM City cannot wait two or three more months, HCM City Party Committee Secretary Nguyen Van Nen said.

Nguyen Thu Anh from the Woolcock Vietnam Institute of Medical Research (University of Sydney, Australia) said fully vaccinating people at high risk in HCM City will mitigate the risks in reopening.

She estimates that HCM City will need an additional 1 million doses to fully vaccinate 80 percent of people aged 50 and over.

This goal could be reached within a short time when the city receives more vaccines, provided that vulnerable people are given priority for vaccinations.

Truong Minh Huy Vu from HCM City National University agrees that the city needs to speed up the vaccination of people aged 50 and over in city districts.

“I believe that it’s necessary to prioritize vaccinating people aged 50 and above in localities which play a very important socio-economic role and social distancing should not be extended,” Anh said.

According to Anh, neighboring provinces, including Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Long An, Ba Ria – Vung Tau and Tay Ninh, also need more vaccines.

It’s estimated that the entire region, which makes up 45 percent of the country’s GDP, will need about 4.3 million doses more.

As for the remaining regions, the Mekong Delta needs 6.3 million doses to ensure full vaccination for 80 percent of people aged 50 and above while the northern key economic zone would need 4.5 million doses.

As such, the target will be met to "reopen the regions which make up three quarters of GDP of the country,” Anh said.

Vu thinks HCM City can open its doors and exchange goods with the three provinces of Dong Nai, Long An and Binh Duong thanks to a reasonable first-shot coverage.

As for Tay Ninh and Ba Ria – Vung Tau, it’s still necessary to consider requirements, because the vaccination rates are still low among people 50 and over

According to Vu, reports on pandemic developments, vaccinations and healthcare capability show that HCM City and most neighboring provinces will be able to control the outbreak in September.

Nevertheless, vaccination is just one element of the ‘new normal’. Many other provinces don’t have vaccines. How will they implement the new regulation once the draft is approved?

Anh said that people play the decisive role in the fight against the pandemic.

“When living together with coronavirus, people have to restrict traveling and gathering in crowds, and observe the 5K (in Vietnamese: Khau trang – facemask, Khu khuan – disinfection, Khoang cach – distance, Khong tu tap - no gathering, Khai bao y te - health declaration) principle,” she said. 

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