return icon

Different scenarios for Vietnam's CPI in 2019 outlined

Experts have outlined a number of different consumer price index (CPI) scenarios for this year, which are all below 4 per cent as requested by the National Assembly.





During a seminar held Thursday in Ha Noi by the Institute of Economics and Finance (IEF) under the Academy of Finance, many economic experts said the target of keeping the country's inflation below 4 per cent was feasible. Some even forecast CPI might be below 3 per cent.

Nguyen Ba Minh, Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance, predicted that CPI this year would climb by 3.0 to 3.5 per cent.

In the second half of the year, a series of factors would be the key drivers of CPI such as rising food prices, especially pork, due to the impact of African swine fever and rising prices of natural resources worldwide after decreasing for a year, Minh said.

“It is likely that the State will continue to increase tuition fees and healthcare service prices. The monthly basic salary for civil servants and public employees will also be raised to VND1.49 million. These will be the factors putting pressure on the CPI at the end of this year,” Minh said.

However, there are also some factors that will curb CPI growth such as the predicted world economic downturn, which would stop the price of raw materials recovering, as well as the Government’s drastic measures to stabilise prices and monetary policies.

Nguyen Duc Do, from the Institute of Economics and Finance, outlined three inflation scenarios, which will stand at 2.5 per cent, 3 per cent and 3.54 per cent.

“After the General Statistics Office announced the average inflation rate for the first six months of this year at 2.64 per cent, there is a high possibility that inflation this year follows the low scenario,” Do said.

“Petrol prices should not increase sharply in the months to come, and the exchange rate will be controlled by the State Bank in a stable manner, so the overall inflation from now until the end of the year is expected to fluctuate between 1.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent. Therefore, average inflation for the whole year 2019 will hover around 2.5 per cent,” he said.

According to Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen, from now until the end of the year, the consumer price index will not be as predictable as in the first half of this year because some pressures have appeared, such as the US-China trade war, African swine fever, and the continuous adjustment of prices of some goods and services.

Therefore, it was necessary to take synchronous and drastic measures to control inflation and stabilise prices, Tuyen said.

Le Quoc Phuong, former deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Industry and Trade Information Center, said that inflation in 2019 could be kept lower than 4 per cent.

The Government needed to continue keeping a close watch on the supply-demand situation to take suitable solutions to stabilise the market, especially in terms of essential goods like pork, construction materials and petrol.

While the fiscal policy must be governed in a strict manner, the monetary policy needed to be flexible and coordinated with other macro-economic policies to keep inflation within the ceiling limit, Phuong said. — VNS

African swine fever holds back foodstuff segment and CPI

African swine fever holds back foodstuff segment and CPI

The African swine fever was named as one of the factors behind the slow rise of the CPI so far in 2019, despite the government’s flexible monetary policy and an increase in gas and electricity costs.

Four-month CPI growth lowest in three years: GSO

Four-month CPI growth lowest in three years: GSO

Vietnam recorded a year-on-year rise of over 2.7 per cent in consumer price index (CPI) in the first four months of this year, marking the lowest rate of increase seen in three years, according to the General Statistics Office.  

Fuel price hikes create pressure but CPI under control

Fuel price hikes create pressure but CPI under control

Petrol price hikes in April were putting pressure on prices but the consumer price index (CPI) was still under the control, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).  


Vietnam looks to upgrade int'l merchant fleet

Vietnam’s maritime sector is striving to upgrade its international merchant fleet in order to reduce the country’s dependency on foreign-owned vessels in export-import activities.

Banking, real estate not ideal options for short-term investors

By the end of this year, oil and gas, transportation, insurance, retail, and hydropower sectors will see positive signals, while the banking and real...

Supply shortage pushes up prices of many drugs

The prices of anaesthetics have increased due to supply disruptions, said insiders at some hospitals and dental clinics.

Vietnamese paragliders to fly high at World Cup

They are among the 120 best pilots in the world, gathering in Gochang, a county in North Jeolla Province.

Three police officers dismissed from force after beating teenagers

They are Captain Chau Minh Trung, Lieutenant Nguyen Quang Thai and Lieutenant Doan Tan Phong.

Vietnam has “golden chance” to welcome new FDI wave

Vietnam has a “golden chance” to attract a new wave of foreign investment, especially to economic zones (EZs) and industrial parks (IPs), according to Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong.

Foreign movies generate more revenue than locally produced films

After one week of release, the film ‘Suddenly Winning the Lottery’ earned VND 71 billion and remained firmly at No. 1 on the box office revenue chart. The film is one of the foreign films generating more revenue than locally produced films.

Ministry to keep coal-fired thermal power projects

To avoid legal risks, thermal power projects in the 8th national power development plan need to be retained, especially BOT (build, operate, transfer) projects, which involve foreign investors, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) said.

EVFTA advantages threatened by tough competition

Although Vietnam is hoping for stunning growth in seafood exports, particularly in the likes of basa fish and shrimp, the nation’s share in the EU market and utilisation of its trade deal with the bloc remain under some pressures.

Vietnam wastes 160 tons of agricultural by-products a year

If 1 million by-products in the seafood industry were processed into valuable products, they would bring in US$4-5 billion. Vietnam produces 160 million tons of by-products a year.

Vietnam records high digital banking growth

Vietnam is one of the countries with the highest growth rates in digital banking though it is still a developing economy, according to international organizations.

Shopee empire is being shaken up

Aspiring to become a super app, Shopee is facing challenges, including in the Vietnamese market.

Corporate bond market reform adds safety net for investors

The fresh and stringent legislative framework for the corporate bond market is slated to pave the way for a better debt sector in Vietnam, while the interests of issuers and investors could be safeguarded.

Call of the past

The past artisans might have not imagined that the vases they made would become special cultural values, which are being hunted and those prices paid equal many years of hard work.

Young Khmer-Vietnamese woman earns high profits from flower "massage"

In the first half of the year, Chal Thy could not succeed but finally was able to learn how to pat and massage flowers so that sweet nectar would be secreted.