Regarding the European Union’s (EU) role in the East Sea, VietNamNet is presenting an article by Truong Minh Huy Vu, lecturer at the Faculty of International Relations, HCM City National University of Social Sciences and Humanities. He is currently a postgraduate at the University of Bonn (Germany) specializing in International political economy.

Evaluation of the EU’s role

In talks with top leaders of Southeast Asian countries, most recently with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, the EU President Barroso stressed the importance of the East Sea in the interests of the EU. He said the East Sea is not only significant in terms of commerce and politics, but also has a strategic position for this union. The EU President's words and the recent moves by the EU in the context of the union’s role in the region and the world is a significant indication.

For a long time, the EU has been seen as an "economic giant" but a "political and military dwarf" in East Asia. There is always a difference between economic interests and military capabilities of the EU. This mismatch can be proven very clearly in the disputed hotspots in the Asia - Pacific region, where the EU benefits a great deal in terms of economics, but does not have the ability to deploy military power or strong political measures.

We compare the EU’s intervention in the East Sea disputes with the formula "3 no, 4 yes".

The three no’s are: 1/ no armed intervention; 2/ not being a pioneer in foreign policy; and 3/ not agreeing with the use of economic sanctions as leverage (in the case of a more aggressive China).

The four yes’s are: 1/ The ability to support multilateral initiatives to promote peace; 2/ the ability to convey its lessons or experiences in the field of preventing and managing conflict at sea; 3/ the ability to help control (partially) armed imports to countries involved in conflicts; and 4/ the ability to play the role of the (co) broker in conflict resolution.

In our opinion, this is the most practical perspective of the role and ability of the EU to intervene in disputes in East Asia, especially the East Sea conflict.

Since it cannot intervene militarily, but is a powerful economic and soft power, it can act as a bridge of knowledge. It should emphasize the ability to transfer knowledge and build intellectual cooperation networks between the EU and ASEAN. Knowledge is power in negotiation and leverage to create international consensus.

Moreover, from the foundation of personal experience, the EU can transfer lessons or experience in the field of prevention and management of conflict in many areas: for instance, the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, which sets catching quotas among member states and fishing cooperative councils like the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO), the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC), and General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM).

The Prime Minister’s visit to the EU

Based on reports from the media, it can be said that a great success in the visit to the EU of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is the agreement to conclude negotiations of the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement in 2015. In recognition of observers, this agreement shall be construed as a political commitment at the highest levels. This has implications both economically and strategically.

For Vietnam, the negotiation round for the Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership Agreement (TPP) in September was noted by the press and public, but there were no signs of conclusion of negotiations.

The complexity of TPP involves the participation of many powers with many different interests. The ability to conclude negotiations in 2014 and even in mid-2015 is not seen as feasible.

So, if the Vietnamese Government sees the use of FTAs as a lever to boost growth after 2014, the completion of the Vietnam - EU FTA in 2015 would be a bright spot.

On the EU side, the "century-long negotiation" of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States is also facing many obstacles. The main obstacle is from inside, as many groups want to stop the agreement or claim transparency of the negotiated terms.

In the new situation, the ability to complete the TTIP within this year or next year, as the two sides expect, can only be on paper. Therefore, bilateral agreements or multilateral FTAs with Asia-Pacific countries will partially open the way for the TTIP.

The EU has signed FTAs with South Korea, is negotiating with Japan, India and ASEAN as a group, and bilaterally negotiating with member countries like Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Truong Minh Huy Vu