VietNamNet Bridge – A series of commercial banks have got the nod from the State Bank of Vietnam to lift the ceiling credit growth rates. However, economists have warned that this could be a double edge knife, because it may lead to high inflation and high bad debt ratio.

Joys and worries

When granting more “quotas” for credit growth limits to some commercial banks, the State Bank strives to pump more capital into the national economy which has been thirsty for capital.

Since businesses cannot access bank loans, they do not have working capital to maintain production. A lot of businesses have been bankrupted; others keep production at a moderate level to drag their miserable existence.

TienPhong Bank has announced the ceiling credit growth rate of 27 percent in 2012. The same quota has been granted to OceanBank. Especially, VP Bank has got the nod to have the 30 percent credit growth rate in 2012, which means that the bank would have had the outstanding loans of 51 trillion dong by the end of the year. HD Bank has also got the credit growth limit of 30 percent.

The State Bank, in its press release, also informed that it has allowed some commercial banks with healthy financial situation to have the higher credit growth rates than previously planned.

The watchdog agency has reassured the public that even if the commercial banks can use up their credit growth quotas, the credit growth rate of the whole banking system in 2012 would not exceed 15 percent in 2012. Therefore, this would not cause the pressure on the inflation.

Some officials believe that the credit growth rate in 2012 of the whole banking system would be 8-10 percent only.

However, Vu Dinh Anh, a well-known finance expert, said that the targeted growth rate of 15-17 percent by the end of the year proves to be unattainable, because banks only have five months ahead to push up credit.

Anh also said that if the lending increases by 8-10 percent this year as expected, this would be a threat to the national economy. The credit has been growing slowly so far this year, which means that in order to obtain the 8-10 percent growth rate for the whole year 2012, banks would have to push up the disbursement.

As such, a big sum of money would be pumped into the national economy within a short time, which may lead to the high inflation and high bad debt ratio.

Anh stressed that the credit growth rates have been always very high in recent years, about 30 percent per annum. The overly high credit growth rate, plus the ineffective capital use both have led to high inflation.

High inflation and bad debts become obsession

Le Tham Duong, a finance expert, on one hand, believes that Vietnam has to push up credit to boost GDP growth, on the other hand, warns that the credit expansion may lead to a double-dip recession.

Also according to Duong, the outstanding loans should increase by 6-8 percent in 2012 to be able to revive businesses and obtain the targeted GDP growth rate. However, he has warned that the credit expansion may cause a side effect – double-dip recession, which he predicts may occur in early 2013.

The National Finance Supervision Council has also warned about the possible high inflation, if capital is pumped rapid fire into circulation. If the credit grows by 1.5 percent a month in the last months of the year (9 percent for six months), the GDP would grow by 5.3 percent. If so, the monthly inflation rate would be 0.5-1 percent.

Phuoc Ha