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While economists see signs of an economic recovery, businesses continue to be pessimistic as sales remained lower than expected during the April holiday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) has released a report, predicting 6.18 percent GDP growth rate in the second quarter compared with the same period in 2014.

Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase by only 0.85 percent compared with the first quarter. 

The country’s trade deficit is expected to be $1.2 billion.

CIEM forecasted a high GDP growth rate for Q2 after witnessing an impressive 6.03 percent growth rate in Q1, the highest growth rate since 2009.

“I can see a clearer recovery and a higher growth rate,” said Nguyen Dinh Cung, head of CIEM.

Cung, while believing that business confidence has been restored, said the targeted GDP growth rate of 6.2 percent this year was within reach.

Nguyen Van Nen, Minister and the head of the Government Office, at a press conference on April 25, also said the economy was recovering.

The industrial production index in the first four months of the year increased by 9.4 percent, compared to  4.8 percent in 2013 and 5.5 percent in 2014.

However, businesses are not as optimistic as the economists and officials. 

During the April holiday, attractive sales promotion campaigns were launched by manufacturers and distributors to lure buyers to department stores and supermarkets. However, they said sales would not be as high as expected.

Tuoi Tre reported that Co-op Mart offered price discounts of 50 percent for 4,000 essential goods, gave 1,600 vouchers to new members and offered 19 tours to buyers who bought goods at the chain from April 24 to May 3. 

The director of a company specializing in distributing branded fashion goods said in a newspaper that he had to think twice about the sales plan during the holiday before determining how many goods to import.

“Businesses hoped the sales would be high on Tet. But in fact, the purchasing power was 20 percent weaker than Tet. There is no reason to put high hopes on this April holiday,” he said.

“Long holidays cannot help lure more customers to shopping malls and supermarkets,” he noted. “I myself witnessed the disappointment of sales people, who saw only window shoppers”.

Pham Chi Lan, a renowned economist, noted that though the signs of economic recovery appeared first in 2014, economists had reasons to doubt the recovery would be stable. 

The number of dissolved businesses last year increased by 10 percent to 67,000.

Kim Chi