Vietnam is facing both opportunities and challenges as it seeks to sustain strong export performance in the coming period. Rising technical barriers, increasingly stringent quality standards, traceability requirements, and social responsibility expectations are creating new pressures for the country’s import-export sector.

Against the complex backdrop of global trade, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is determined to maintain export growth of 15–16% while sustaining a trade surplus of around 23 billion USD to make a significant contribution to achieving double-digit GDP growth in 2026 and beyond.

Numerous challenges ahead

Vietnam’s aquatic product exports reached a record 11.3 billion USD in 2025, and growth continued into the first two months of 2026 with a 20% year-on-year increase to 1.7 billion USD. Nevertheless, the sector faces multiple challenges.

Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), highlighted the impact of rising logistics costs due to Middle East conflicts. Aquatic product exports, heavily reliant on maritime transport, are affected by diverted shipping routes via Africa, which extend delivery times to Europe and the US East Coast by one to two weeks, thus increasing costs. Insurers have also refused coverage for high-risk Middle East routes, while packaging and processing material costs are soaring.

Additionally, the sector must navigate trade defence measures and tariffs on key products such as shrimp and tra fish. Since January, the US has banned seafood from twelve fisheries that were not recognised as equivalent under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. In February, the US issued final results of the 19th administrative review of anti-dumping duties on shrimp, imposing nearly 26% tariffs on two Vietnamese firms and over 4.5% on non-reviewed companies, causing a 60% drop in shrimp exports to the US that month.

Trade with the UAE is also subject to volatility. Bilateral trade reached over 6.5 billion USD in 2025, with Vietnam exporting nearly 5 billion USD more than it imported. The Vietnam-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), effective February 3, initially boosted exports to almost 1 billion USD in the first two months of 2026. However, ongoing Middle East tensions pose logistical disruptions, fuel price volatility, and production cost increases, potentially affecting competitiveness and key agricultural exports such as spices and fresh fruits.

Expanding markets, reducing dependence

Vietnam’s textile and garment industry, a major export sector, ships products to around 130 countries but relies heavily on the US, EU, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and China, which account for nearly 90% of exports. Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) Truong Van Cam urged the ministry to help businesses explore new, high-potential markets and strengthen supply chains for raw materials and auxiliary inputs. Enhancing domestic production capacity is essential to fully benefit from free trade agreements.

VASEP also recommended diversifying markets for aquatic products beyond traditional destinations like the US and EU to regions such as Brazil, South America, and South Asia, while promoting Vietnamese exporters through overseas trade offices. Providing timely market information and early warnings will help businesses plan production and respond proactively to trade challenges.

Nguyen Anh Son, Director of the Agency for Foreign Trade, emphasised that the Ministry of Industry and Trade will closely monitor market developments and coordinate with related agencies to guide exporters effectively./.