Couples with a combined monthly income of 30 million VND, among the highest-earning households, still face difficulties buying homes in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City if adhering to the common financial principle of not spending more than one-third of their income on housing.

According to a report by the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), based on data from the General Statistics Office’s (GSO) 2023 Residential Living Standards Survey, the top 20% income group (Group 5) earns an average monthly income per capita of:

14.47 million VND in Hanoi,
13.8 million VND in Da Nang,
13.26 million VND in HCMC,
13.9 million VND in Dong Nai,
18.38 million VND in Binh Duong.

While this group is expected to be financially capable of purchasing homes in major cities like Hanoi and HCMC without government support, the reality proves otherwise.

Assuming a household of two working adults in this income group, their combined income is estimated at 30 million VND/month or 360 million VND/year. Following the financial principle that housing costs should not exceed one-third of income, they can allocate up to 6.7 million VND/month, or roughly 80 million VND/year, for housing.

However, in Hanoi and HCMC, commercial apartments range from 40–70 million VND/m², depending on location and segment. A 60m² apartment would cost between 2.5–3.5 billion VND.

If a high-income household aims to buy a 3.5 billion VND apartment with a 70% bank loan (2.45 billion VND) at an interest rate of 8% per year over 20 years, their monthly repayment would be 25–27 million VND, amounting to over 300 million VND annually.

With a maximum housing allocation of 80 million VND/year, this group is effectively priced out of the housing market, VARS concluded.

Widening gap between income and housing prices

VARS attributes the declining affordability of housing in recent years to the rapid increase in real estate prices in major cities, far outpacing income growth.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, real estate prices, especially apartments in Hanoi, Da Nang, and HCMC, have continuously risen, establishing a new baseline that is 30% higher than in 2019.

The Ministry of Construction reported that by Q3 2024, apartment prices in Hanoi had increased across both new and existing projects, with new project prices rising 4–6% quarterly and 22–25% annually.

Data from Batdongsan indicates that the average listing price of apartments was:

34–37 million VND/m² in 2021,
38–40 million VND/m² in 2022,
39–42 million VND/m² in 2023,
45–51 million VND/m² in 2024.

Meanwhile, urban per capita income in 2023 rose by only 4% compared to 2019, according to GSO statistics.

For Group 5, average income in Hanoi and Da Nang increased by just 3% and 7%, respectively, over the same period, while HCMC recorded a negative growth of 8%.

This growing disparity between income and housing prices has particularly impacted middle-class and upper-middle-class households.

Another key factor contributing to unaffordability, according to VARS, is the limited supply of affordable housing. There are very few housing projects with prices below 30 million VND/m², leaving most people, including high-income earners, with no suitable options.

Speculative behavior is also a major driver of skyrocketing real estate prices. Many buyers purchase properties not for personal use but to hold onto them, leaving them vacant while waiting for prices to appreciate. This exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand.

Nguyen Le