VietNamNet Bridge – Doubtful about the EVN’s promise to ensure a sufficient electricity supply, major enterprises are concerned that outages could occur during the dry season next year.

The National Power Regulatory Center (A0) said that it had drawn up four scenarios to ensure power supply for production and daily use next year, after considering power demand in the national economy and the expected rainfall.

Under the first scenario, the power output in 2015 would increase by 11.5 percent, while water at reservoirs would be equal to 65 percent of that in the same period of the previous year. This means the electricity from gas turbine and thermal coal-run plants in the south would be used at a high level all year-round.

If so, oil-run thermopower plants would have to start in April with the low output of 279 million kwh in dry months due to the limitations of the 500 KV transmission line.

The Ca Mau Gas Plant said it would stop providing gas for 14 days and stop providing gas. It would also stop releasing gas from the 06.1 block for three days and from the Nam Con Son field for one day for maintenance.

Because of the stoppage, EVN would have to collect about 153 million kwh of electricity from oil-run thermal power plants.

The power standby capacity in the north is better than in the south, estimated at 3.6 billion kwh as new thermal power plants will be put into operation, namely Quang Ninh 2, Hai Phong 2, Nghi Son 1, Vung Ang 1 and Mong Duong 2.

Under the second scenario, if the national economy performs well, i.e., the demand for commercial power increases by 11.5 percent, and the reservoir water level is only equal to 75 percent of that in the same period of this year, the power output to be mobilized from hydropower plants would be short by 1.06 billion kwh in the dry season and 4.19 billion kwh in the entire year of 2015.

In the third scenario, once power demand increases, EVN would have to seek an additional output of 1.05 billion kwh in the dry season and 2.16 billion kwh for all of 2015. In this case, the power demand in the south could increase by 515 million kwh in the dry season.

In the worst scenario, EVN would have to mobilize electricity from high-production cost electricity generation sources, about 1.044 billion kwh in the dry season and 2.164 billion for the entire year, as the electricity output from hydropower plants may decrease by 1.06 billion kwh in the dry season.

According to Ngo Son Hai, A0’s director, if the fourth scenario occurs (high additional charges, low water levels), about 579 million kwh would be sought from oil-run plants in the dry season and 747 million kwh for the year. This means that EVN would have to pay trillions of additional dong to ensure the sufficient supply of electricity.

Hai said that electricity volume from China in 2015 would be at one of its lowest levels in years due to standby capacity in the north. In the south, Vinh Tan 2 thermal power plant plays a very important role in power supply to the region.

Tien Phong