According to experts, the recently adjusted land price framework issued by the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee is set to impact every corner of the real estate market, with land plot prices expected to increase significantly.

The adjusted land price framework, effective from October 31 until the end of December 31, 2025, has drawn various expert opinions on its potential effects.

Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), noted that the new land price framework was developed based on principles that align with market rates. The drafting body incorporated feedback from the business community and experts.

Compared to the draft released in late July, Chairman Chau pointed out that the newly issued land prices have been adjusted in a "reasonable and balanced" manner.

For example, in Hoc Mon District, the draft proposed a 50.7-fold increase in residential land prices compared to the 2020 framework, but the adjusted version now shows a near 40-fold increase.

Regarding its impact, Chau mentioned that the new framework ensures fairness between those who have fulfilled their financial obligations in the first 10 months of this year and those starting from October 31.

"The adjusted land prices won’t immediately impact the real estate market, as commercial housing projects are currently priced using the surplus method. However, over time, as developers acquire land for new projects, landowners will likely demand higher prices, which will lead to increased housing prices," said Chau.

The HoREA Chairman also suggested that government authorities should closely monitor the activities of "middlemen, speculators, and unscrupulous businesses," as these entities could exploit the new land price framework to drive up prices.

Will land plot prices increase by 50% in a year?

Speaking with VietNamNet, real estate expert Tran Khanh Quang noted that under the 2024 Land Law, land prices must align closely with market rates. Given the current fluctuations in the city's land market compared to the 2020 framework, the adjustment was necessary.

Compared to the 2020 prices, the new adjustments reflect an average increase of 4 to 35 times. This affects almost every type of real estate and the entire market.

Quang believes that land plots on the city’s outskirts will be the most affected. With the adjusted framework showing an upward trend, land plot prices will naturally follow suit.

"This is inevitable," Quang asserted.

"Initially, over the next 3 to 6 months, current land plot prices are expected to rise by 20-30%. Subsequently, within 6 months to a year, prices may increase by 30-50%," the expert predicted.

The next real estate segment likely to be affected includes townhouses priced under 7 billion VND. As land plot prices rise, townhouse prices are also expected to increase.

Regarding commercial housing projects, Quang mentioned that rising land prices would make it more challenging for developers to acquire land from residents due to higher compensation costs. Consequently, housing project prices will also climb.

"The impact of the new land price framework on the real estate market is not yet clear, but in recent months, some developers have been launching new projects with fairly high prices. It’s possible that developers are taking advantage of the adjusted land prices to push up sales prices," Quang explained.

Regarding investor sentiment, he observed that those holding residential land plots tend to wait for prices to rise, while investors holding agricultural land plots are left uncertain.

Meanwhile, apartment investors are benefiting significantly from the adjusted land price framework.

"Current market transactions mainly involve apartments. Not only are new condo projects being launched, but prices on the secondary market are also steadily increasing," the expert concluded.

Anh Phuong