VietNamNet Bridge – The high prices in the world’s market are supporting Vietnam’s farm produce exports. However, the input material shortage may put obstacles in exporters’ way.

In the latest bulletin released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) the expected rice export volume still stays at 6.1 million tons for 2010. Meanwhile, the forecast pepper export volume has been lowered to 114,000 tons, lower than the previously forecast level at 132.5 thousand tons.

6.1 million tons of exported rice underway

MARD has confirmed the rice export volume for 2010 at 6.1 million tons, the forecast level which was released one month ago.

Vietnam’s rice is selling well in the world market and is going for good prices. With the forecasts about the decreases in the global rice output and the appreciation of the baht, the rice price has increased considerably. Thai rice price has increased by 4-13 percent since mid August.

By September 24, Vietnam had exported 5.256 million tons, worth $2.22 billion, increasing by 11.75 percent in export volume and 14.35 percent in export value in comparison with the same period of the last year.

In the first week of September 2010, Vietnam’s five percent broken rice was traded at $460 per ton, an increase of 15 percent over the previous month. However, the price was still lower than the eight-month average export price at $470 per ton.

Seafood export volume worth $4.8 billion within reach

MARD has adjusted the forecast seafood export revenue to $4.815 billion from $4.786 billion forecast last month. However, the new forecast level is still lower than the forecast level of $4.84 billion released in the second quarter of the year.

As for tra fish exports, the ministry has, once again, reduced the forecast export revenue to $1.352 billion and the export volume to 630,000 tons, because of the new tax rates to be imposed by the US.

The economic recovery in some countries, especially developed economies, has led to the slight increase in the trading volumes, estimated to reach 52.8 million tons, higher than the previous year’s level at 52.5 million tons.

The higher prices of some kinds of seafood products have helped increase the seafood export revenue. Seafood exports in the first eight months of the year have brought $2.978 billion dollar in revenue.

Coffee exports promise at $1.8 billion

The good coffee prices in the world market have prompted MARD to raise the forecast export volume to 1.17 million tons in 2010, and the export value to $1.8 billion. Prior to that, in the August’s bulletin, the forecast export levels were more modest, at 1.1 million tons and $1.67 billion.

The world coffee price bounced back on September 27 trading session in the context of the worries about high inflation dues to the US loosened monetary policies. Besides, the Arabica coffee in New York market has also been supported by the information about the hot and dry weather in Brazil.

Vietnam’s coffee export price is now staying at $1755 per ton, FOB Saigon port.

MARD believes that the coffee stocks in the world market are very low; therefore, it believes that in the time to come, the coffee price may rise to $1700-1800 per ton.

Rubber export volume may be double this year

MARD thinks that the rubber export volume in 2010 may reach 744,000 tons, worth $2.3 billion. Though the expected export volume would increase slightly by 1.7 percent over 2009, the export revenue would be double. The rubber price has been staying firmly at high levels since the beginning of the year.

The annual analysis released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries ANPRC in September 2010, the continue rubber price increases have been attributed to the short supply and the changes in the local currencies’ value.

In Malaysia, the price of SMR20 rubber has increased from $286.85 per 100 kilos on July 1 to $342.05 on September 23, an increase of 19.2 percent.

Vietnam’s rubber export price has also increased in accordance with the world’s prices. On September 24, the price of RSS3 rubber was traded at $3320 per tons, a slight increase of 3.4 percent over the beginning of the third quarter.

Also according to ANRPC, Vietnam’s rubber output would increase by 18.2 percent in the third quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

Pepper export volume would not be high

MARD thinks that the pepper export volume in 2010 would be 114,000 tons only, much lower than the level of 132.5 thousand tons forecast last month. It is because the pepper production is facing severe drought.

Source: Thoi bao Kinh te Vietnam