VN-Index falls after a long rally, but outlook remains bullish

Following an extended market rally, the VN-Index dropped sharply by over 42 points during the last trading session of the week (August 22, 2025), closing at 1,645.47 points amid profit-taking pressure.

Despite the significant correction, PYN Elite Fund quickly issued a letter to its investors, reaffirming its positive assessment of the Vietnamese stock market.

The Finnish fund noted that between 2022 and 2024, the VN-Index was largely stagnant, with an overall decline of 15.4%. However, it emphasized that the landscape has now changed, with the stock market regaining momentum and growth likely to accelerate further.

Based on current fundamental indicators, PYN Elite Fund is confident that Vietnam’s stock market is entering a “big year” in terms of performance, with outcomes expected to be clearly reflected across the market.

The fund has previously experienced four breakthrough years - 1999, 2003, 2009, and 2012 - when its annual returns ranged from 64% to 199%.

In a rare move, PYN Elite Fund disclosed its entire investment portfolio, which includes 23 listed stocks. While the VN-Index gained 33% over the same period, 12 of the fund’s holdings have outperformed the benchmark. The top three performers are VIX (+273%), GEX (+208%), and SHS (+146%).

Other outperforming stocks include MBB, DXS, STB, OCB, and HVN.

Of the 23 stocks in its portfolio, 10 belong to the financial sector (banking and securities), which has been one of the market’s strongest performing segments and a key driver of recent momentum.

However, four stocks in the fund’s portfolio are currently underperforming: ASM, YEG, AVG, and SCS. Among them, ACV and SCS have declined the most, with losses of 18% to 19%.

Portfolio strategy and P/E forecasts

PYN Elite Fund stated that it aims to maximize profits from its high-performing positions. At the same time, the fund is prepared to adjust its portfolio as market performance among stocks has varied widely this year. A strong growth phase is likely to bring significant volatility, with expected fluctuations and potential corrections.

Maintaining its firm belief in Vietnam’s stock market, the fund identified seven key growth drivers that could make 2025 a landmark year:

First, public spending is actively fueling economic growth.

Second, Vietnam has abundant liquidity, and the government continues to support credit expansion.

Third, concerns over US-Vietnam trade, particularly tariffs, have largely been resolved.

Fourth, FTSE is expected to upgrade Vietnam from a frontier to an emerging market (EM) in October.

Fifth, corporate earnings are projected to grow strongly, with forecasts of 32% growth in 2025 and 19% in 2026.

Sixth, based on earnings forecasts, Vietnam’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 11.1x.

Finally, the recent market rally has focused on select stock groups. As capital rotates, new growth is expected to emerge across other stocks and sectors, drawing broader investor interest.

Tien Phong