More than a decade has passed since the market witnessed a "gold rebellion." Predictions of a drop from $4,100 to $3,300 per tael have become increasingly unrealistic. However, the lessons from the 2011 shock remain relevant.

Gold prices skyrocketed, continuously setting historical peaks — reaching $4,100 per tael on March 19. Within just one year, the price of gold jewelry rose by about $1,200 per tael, while SJC gold bars surged by over $760 per tael.

Compared to the same period last year, the prices of gold jewelry and gold bars increased by 43% and 23%, respectively. This level of growth means gold has yielded three to five times more profit than savings deposits.

At this point, forecasts of gold prices falling back to $3,300 per tael — or even lower — seem out of touch. Few people believe in such a scenario. However, history has shown that gold prices do not rise indefinitely and can stay low for many years.

A look back at the 2011 gold shock

Between 2009 and 2011, gold prices fluctuated wildly. In just three years, domestic gold bar prices soared from $780 to $2,000 per tael, an increase of more than $1,200. This was considered the first "gold fever" of the 21st century when the demand for gold in Vietnam reached its peak.

However, just before hitting $2,000 per tael, gold prices started to plunge by the end of 2011 and remained around $1,360-$1,440 per tael during 2012-2018, hitting a bottom of $1,230 per tael at the end of 2015.

It was not until 2019 that gold began a new upward cycle, soaring to $1,610 per tael by the end of the year, and continuing its strong momentum in the following years. This means it took many years for those who bought gold in 2011 to break even.

Will the 2011 scenario repeat?

After years of stagnation following the plunge in late 2011, gold prices did not experience another fever until late 2023.

At the beginning of 2023, the selling price of SJC gold bars was recorded at $2,540 per tael. Just over two years later, on March 19, 2025, the price had surpassed $4,100 per tael, an increase of $1,560 (equivalent to a 49.3% rise).

From the 2015 low of $1,230 per tael, SJC gold bars have increased by $2,870 per tael, marking a 208% gain. Similarly, the selling price of gold jewelry on January 1, 2023, was around $2,050 per tael, but by March 19, 2025, it had surged to $4,100 per tael — an increase of approximately $2,050, or 85%.

Factors driving the current gold surge

This gold price increase has been driven by various domestic and international factors. Currently, gold prices in Vietnam are hovering at historic highs as global gold prices officially surpassed $3,000 per ounce and continued to break new records.

The precious metal has benefited from growing concerns over economic and geopolitical instability worldwide. Additionally, the weakening of the US dollar, lackluster stock and real estate markets, and persistently low savings interest rates have further fueled the rally.

Moreover, prolonged inflationary pressure across multiple sectors has made gold increasingly attractive as a hedge against currency depreciation. On top of this, international speculators are capitalizing on the trend to reap profits.

Given these factors, some experts predict that gold prices could rise to $3,200 per ounce or even higher this year. Domestic gold prices are expected to follow suit, potentially reaching new historical peaks while also experiencing periodic fluctuations.

Caution amid optimism

On the other hand, some readers have pointed out that the current surge to $3,000 per ounce resembles the spike to nearly $1,900 per ounce in 2011, which was followed by a sharp decline as profit-taking pressure mounted. The precious metal continued to fall, bottoming out at $1,049 per ounce in 2015.

One reader calculated that from late 2019, global gold prices began to rise again, closing at $1,895.10 per ounce by the end of 2020. This means that those who bought gold in late 2011 only managed to break even by the end of 2020.

When the factors currently supporting gold prices dissipate, a global gold plunge is inevitable, and domestic prices will likely follow. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully consider investments and avoid emotional purchases, as no commodity rises indefinitely.

Recent price adjustments

After surpassing the $4,100 per tael mark, domestic gold prices began to retreat. By the end of the trading session on March 21, SJC gold jewelry prices for 1-5 tael pieces fell by $100-$130 per tael (buy-sell), settling at $3,870-$3,980 per tael. Meanwhile, Doji's 9999 gold jewelry also dropped to $3,900-$4,050 per tael, decreasing by $150-$70 per tael on the buying and selling sides, respectively.

SJC gold bar prices also saw a significant decline on both buying and selling sides, now standing at $3,880-$3,990 per tael.

Tam An