return icon

Global inflation may cool down within a year, not a big worry for Vietnam

Despite rising commodity prices following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, experts believe that within six months or a year from now, global inflation will cool down.



Ukraine tension and the Fed’s interest rate hike are the two most concerning factors for the market today. Many economic sanctions imposed on Russia have disrupted supply chains and led to higher commodity prices and risk of inflation.

Dinh Quang Hinh, an expert at VNDIRECT securities company, said the impact on the world economy depends on how long the Russia-Ukraine tensions will last. Even if the conflict occurs in a short time, the impact on both sides will be significant because the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are unlikely to be withdrawn soon. Global commodity prices will therefore be affected.

Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and gas (accounting for 30% of total gas consumption by Europe), fertilizer, steel and wheat. The price for this group of commodities will be greatly affected if the crisis continues.

Rising commodity prices will put pressure on inflation, especially in economies with high inflation such as the US and Europe, forcing the central banks of these countries to change monetary policy, said Mr. Hinh.

Mr. Cao Minh Hoang, Investment Director of the IPA Fund Management Company, said that in the immediate future, global inflation will increase rapidly because short-term aggregate supply will be affected by supply chain disruptions due to Covid 19 and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. However, global production capacity is being replenished very quickly, and global inflation will return to normal (about 2%) as supply is met, he said.

Mr. Hinh said that inflation in the world is diverging. The EU and the US are facing great inflationary pressure, but Asian countries like Vietnam and China are controlling inflation quite well. However, to control inflation, big economies like the US and EU need a longer time, not just 6 months or one year.

According to experts, the Russia-Ukraine crisis will end before this summer, before Europe warms up. At that time, the prices of many commodities, which have rocketed, will slow down. However, for some commodities such as iron, steel and fertilizer, the prices are unlikely to fall as deeply as they did in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Though it cannot avoid the influence of the world economic and political situation, experts believe that Vietnam's inflation in 2022 is still under control, only about 3.5%. The reason is that food and foodstuff prices have remained stable, and costs of education, health care, and space rental have not increased or even decreased over the past time. As for petrol prices, in the coming time, the Government may have more intervention measures (for example tax reduction) if needed.

If inflation can be controlled in 2022, Vietnam still has an opportunity to expand policy easing, and support economic recovery and growth.

Le Ha

Banking sector optimistic despite ongoing conflict in Europe

Banking sector optimistic despite ongoing conflict in Europe

It's too early to tell how the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect Vietnam's banking sector, said industry experts.

Russian SWIFT expulsion partly impacts Vietnamese payments

Russian SWIFT expulsion partly impacts Vietnamese payments

The decision by Western allies to remove Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system will not only affect Russian payments, but also many other countries globally, including Vietnam. 


Applying special mechanism, HCMC attracts 10 experts, scientists and talents

HCM City has issued a Resolution on the income level of experts and scientists for the fields the city needs to attract talents in the 2018-2022 period.

People should be cautious of 'easy job, high salary' in Cambodia

Nguyen Minh K., 24, of Ninh Thuan Province, still can't believe he was illegally sold to a casino in Cambodia.

25 Apple ’s partners have factories set up factories in Vietnam

The number of Apple manufacturing partners setting up their factories in Vietnam has increased to 25 at present, four more than the 2020 figure, the tech giant said in its list of supply partners for the fiscal year 2021.


Hanoi inaugurates new road tunnel to address traffic congestion

Netlflix asked to remove "Little Women" for distorting history

The request was made by the Authority of Broadcasting and Electronic Information, under the Ministry of Information and Communications, according to Deputy Director General Le Quang Tu Do.

UOB upgrades 2022 growth forecast for Vietnam to 8.2%

Given Vietnam’s strong economic recovery in the third quarter, the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its forecast for the country’s GDP growth this year to 8.2%, from the previous prediction of 7%.

Vietnam rice prices surge on Indian rice export restrictions

Prices of Vietnamese rice surged in the global and domestic markets after India announced restrictions on broken rice exports and a 20% duty on exports of various other types.

Deaths of Adenovirus total nine, infections increase with many severe cases

The child died at the National Children's Hospital on Monday and is not thought to have any health issues but had been treated for the past 50 days and recently needed a ventilator.


Vietnamese fleet to handle a fifth of exports by 2030: transport ministry

A day in the life of a fisherman in ​​Mong Cai

After Van Don - Mong Cai highway opened for traffic in early September, the border city of Mong Cai became a new tourist attraction.

Vietnamese navy ship arrives at Lumut port, beginning Malaysian visit

Sailing Ship 286-Le Quy Don of the Vietnam Naval Academy and a delegation of the Vietnam People’s Navy arrived at Lumut port in the Malaysian state of Perak on October 4, beginning a visit to Malaysia.

Hanoi, CNN boost tourism promotion cooperation

CNN wishes to resume tourism promotion cooperation with Hanoi, thus contributing to introducing the capital city’s cultural identity and valuable traditions to the world, Senior Vice President of CNN Robert Bradley said.

Vietnam's brand value reaches $431 billion

According to the latest report of the world's leading brand valuation consulting company - Brand Finance, Vietnam's national brand value has increased by 11 percent in 2022, from $388 billion to $431 billion.

Unblocking capital sources for the economy

After the recent increase in credit limit, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has granted 13.6 percent of the total 14 percent credit room in 2022.

Share prices fall, billionaires lose big

Billionaire Tran Dinh Long’s assets have fallen by $1.6 billion this year, while billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong has lost $2 billion.