Following a period of overheating, the domestic gold market is undergoing a sharp correction. At the beginning of May, SJC gold bars were quoted at VND163.3 million (bid) and VND166.3 million (ask) per tael. Meanwhile, SJC gold rings (1–5 mace) fetched VND162.8 million and VND165.8 million for buying and selling, respectively.

By mid-month, SJC gold bars shed VND2.3 million to VND161–164 million (bid/ask), while SJC gold rings dropped by VND2 million to VND160.8–163.8 million.

By the close of May 30, SJC gold bars dropped further to VND156–159 million, while SJC gold rings slipped to VND155.8–158.8 million.

Since early May, SJC gold bars and rings have lost VND7.3 million and VND7 million per tael, respectively. SJC gold bar prices are now roughly VND17.7 million lower than their early April levels.

Compared to the peak of over VND190 million/tael, SJC gold bars have wiped out more than VND30 million/tael.

However, current prices are still up from the beginning of the year, gaining about VND5.2 million on the bid and VND6.13 million on the ask. SJC gold rings have also jumped by VND10 million, representing a near 7 percent increase.

The deep decline in gold prices over recent weeks has left many gold-holding investors highly anxious. In particular, those who bought in when gold prices were continuously hitting records are now booking significant losses if they sell.

Hai, an investor, bought 5 taels of SJC gold when the market price hovered around VND181 million/tael. If sold at the current buying rate of VND156 million/tael, Hai loses about VND25 million on each tael of gold. The total estimated temporary loss for his 5 taels stands at roughly VND125 million.

The risks of "bottom fishing" in gold

According to financial expert Tran Trong Duc, Founder & CEO of Virtus Prosperity, following a period of overheating and setting record prices, the gold market is entering a necessary phase of correction and accumulation.

Duc believes that the probability of gold prices returning to their old peaks within the next 3 to 6 months is not high. The market might even need at least 6 months to fully absorb profit-taking pressures and establish a new upward trend.

In this context, investors need to build strategies tailored to their financial goals. For those purchasing gold as long-term wealth accumulation, patiently holding and awaiting a new price appreciation cycle, which could emerge late this year or early next year, is an option worth considering.

Meanwhile, investors utilizing financial leverage should proactively reduce their holding proportions to mitigate risks, given that the market is signaling that a short-term peak has likely formed and further consolidation time is required.

He also noted that many international organizations and investment funds have adjusted their forecasts for the precious metal. Some conservative scenarios suggest that global gold prices could fall below the threshold of $4,000/ounce, equivalent to a further downside room of about 10 percent compared to current levels. This means investors need to psychologically prepare for continued market volatility ahead.

According to the expert, the current phase is unsuitable for a chase-buying strategy or concentrating all capital into gold while prices remain in a downward correction trend. Instead of bottom fishing, investors should wait for the market to form a sufficiently long consolidation range of about 2 to 3 months before considering larger capital disbursements.

For those who still wish to increase the gold weight in their portfolios, a suitable solution is to break down capital into smaller parts for periodic purchases. For instance, with an intended investment capital of VND1 billion, an investor can split it into multiple small portions and deploy capital gradually over a 1-to-2-week cycle, prioritizing periods of price corrections.

Once the recovery trend is more clearly established, the remaining capital can then be funneled into the market. This approach helps minimize risks, limits psychological pressure, and enhances capital management efficiency amid highly volatile gold prices.

Manh Ha