The latest report by Cushman & Wakefield showed that in the first quarter of 2026, the core area of HCMC recorded 1,200 newly launched apartments, down 62 percent compared to the previous quarter and down 47 percent over the same period last year. 

The average primary selling price of apartments rose to nearly $7,300/m2, equivalent to about VND190 million/m2, a 53 percent increase over the same period last year.

A representative of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam ssaid that this average primary price is the highest level in history in HCMC. The figure reflects the baseline market price level and does not yet include "early booking" incentives or fast-payment discounts.

According to the market research unit, the average primary selling price in the central area of HCMC is forecast to continue at a high level due to mounting input cost pressure and the upward trend of real estate mortgage interest rates.

Capital flows from many localities, particularly the Northern region, are shifting into the center of HCMC. The main driver comes from the expectation that real estate prices will continue to rise after a long period of the market short supply.

Regarding the shortage of apartment supply in the core area of HCMC, in its Q1/2026 market spotlight report, CBRE Vietnam deemed that the clearest evidence is the inventory rate accounting for a mere 2.6 percent of total supply. This helps maintain high heat and competitiveness for new projects.

In addition, the structure of HCMC's apartment market has changed significantly following the administrative merger. The market has become more diversified, with more than 60 percent of newly launched supply in the quarter priced below VND60 million per sqm.

According to Avison Young, the post-merger apartment market in HCMC is becoming increasingly segmented by location. While prices in the urban core have reached around VND190 million per sqm, the average primary selling price across the broader HCMC market stands at $3,900 per sqm, equivalent to more than VND100 million per sqm.

Overall, the market is entering a phase of purification, shifting from speculative, short-term flipping trends to long-term value investing, while demand is rising in areas with more affordable price levels, according to Avison Young.

Liquidity loses momentum

According to Avison Young's Q1 2026 market report, the average primary selling price of mid-range apartments in HCMC rose to about $2,500 per sqm, equivalent to around VND65 million per sqm. Meanwhile, the average primary price of high-end apartments reached approximately $4,700 per sqm, or about VND123 million per sqm.

Compared to Q4 2025, average prices increased by around 3 percent after each new launch. During the first two months of the year, the average absorption rate at newly launched projects reached about 35 percent.

However, according to David Jackson, general director of Avison Young Vietnam, market absorption began to slow after the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday. Interest rate adjustments have also created pressure for both homebuyers and short-term investors.

Cushman & Wakefield said that liquidity in the HCMC apartment market in the first quarter of this year is showing signs of stalling.

According to this market research unit, new absorption volume only reached about 25 percent of the new supply, plummeting by up to 74 percent compared to the previous quarter and down 31 percent over the same period last year. 

In the context of escalating primary selling prices, the shortage of affordable apartment supply has significantly dampened buyers' sentiment compared to the timeline of 2025.

Explaining the causes leading to the drop in liquidity, Le Hoang Lan Nhu Ngoc, senior director and head of Strategic Advisory at Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, said that credit tightening and rising borrowing costs are becoming major barriers for the market.

This causes buyers to hold a cautious mindset, opting to "wait and see" for more favorable monetary policies in the coming quarters.

Anh Phuong