Cold air dispersal is expected to bring temperatures in Ho Chi Minh City down to 20°C by late January. Furthermore, unseasonal rains are predicted throughout the traditionally dry months, leading to an unusual “wet dry season.”

Cold nights and mornings in January

According to Le Dinh Quyet, Head of Forecasting at the Southern Regional Hydrometeorological Station, long-term weather forecasts for January to March 2025 indicate notable variations in Ho Chi Minh City’s weather.

In January, cold air masses will intensify, extending further south. The northeastern monsoon will be moderate, resulting in overcast skies and limited sunshine. A light but widespread unseasonal rain event is expected during this month.

Nighttime and early morning temperatures are projected to drop significantly during the first few days and towards the end of the month, with lows reaching 20°C in some areas.

February: Transitioning towards heat

In February, the city will remain influenced by the southern edge of continental cold air masses, with moderate to strong northeastern monsoon winds dominating.

The month will generally see dry conditions, with only 3–5 days of light, sporadic rain. Night and early morning temperatures will remain cool in the first half of the month. However, localized heatwaves with peak temperatures exceeding 35°C may occur in the final days.

March: Unseasonal rain and rising heat

By March, the influence of the northeastern monsoon will weaken significantly, giving way to the development of a westward low-pressure system.

This shift is expected to result in widespread heatwaves, with temperatures peaking at 36–37°C in central urban areas. The number of hot days may range from 10 to 15 during the month.

Unseasonal rains due to thermal convection will also appear from mid-March onward, contributing to varied rainfall across the region. Central areas of the city may experience significantly higher precipitation levels compared to suburban areas.

An unusual "wet dry season"

Mr. Quyet emphasized the irregularity of the upcoming dry season, characterized by frequent unseasonal rain episodes.

January: The peak of the dry season will still feature recurring rain over several days. Total monthly rainfall is expected to surpass historical averages across most areas of Ho Chi Minh City.

February: Though less frequent, rain during this month may be heavier. Overall rainfall totals are expected to exceed January’s figures and surpass long-term averages by 50–100%.

March: Convective rain will become more prevalent, particularly in mid to late March. Rainfall totals will generally align with or slightly exceed historical averages, especially in central city areas.

Temperature outlook

January temperatures will decline due to the northeastern monsoon, with cooler nights and mornings.

In February, while cold air dispersal weakens by mid to late month, the city may experience increasingly warm afternoons, with peak temperatures exceeding 35°C in some areas.

March may bring several widespread heatwaves, signaling an early start to the hot season. However, the intensity is expected to be milder compared to 2024.

Bao Anh