In 2006, Vietnam officially reached the replacement fertility level (2.09 children). The figure had been maintained over the last 15 years until 2023, when Vietnam for the first time reported a fertility rate of below two.

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), under an average-case scenario, in 2019-2024, the population growth rate would be 0.93 percent per annum. In the future, the population growth rate is predicted to continue to decrease and stop decreasing by the end of the 2064-2069 period.

Under a worse-case scenario, with the fertility rate decreasing sharply, after 2054 Vietnam’s population would enter a negative growth period and population decreases would be increasingly sharp. In 2054-2059, the population would decrease by 0.04 percent per annum. The decrease is predicted to be higher in the last months of the forecast period (2064-2069), 0.18 percent, or 200,000 people a year.

Under an ideal-case scenario, the replacement fertility level is maintained throughout the forecast period, and the Vietnamese population would keep increasing slightly by the end of the period, by 0.17 percent in 2064-2069, or VND200,000 people a year.

Ha Anh Duc from the Ministry of Health (MOH) said an international research project released in 2020 showed that Vietnam’s population would rise to 107 million by 2044, and then decrease to 72 million by 2100 if Vietnam doesn’t have reasonable measures to increase the fertility rate.

The Department of Population, after analyzing reports from 47 out of 63 cities/provinces, has estimated that the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam was 113.2 boys per 100 girls.

The society's preference for boys, where a female child is valued less than a male, the desire to have sons in small-sized families, the abuse of technology to ensure gender choices, and poor enforcement of legal regulations have all aggravated the situation.

The gender imbalance in Vietnam was first discovered in the early 21st century, which has led to changes in the gender structure of the population and a surplus of men of marriageable age in the future.

The 2019 population and housing census recorded an excess of men of marriageable age. According to an average-case population scenario, in 2021, for every 100 men of marriageable age (from 20 to 39 years old), more than three were redundant due to a lack of women of the same age, which was the consequence of sex imbalance at birth in the 2000s.

Vo Thu