
China's military growth over the last decade has exceeded most forecasts with the Chinese military fielding an operational anti-ship ballistic missile, completing a prototype of its first stealth fighter jet and launching its first aircraft carrier for a maiden run over the course of last one year itself. Chinese capabilities are rapidly growing to where it can challenge the status quo in the Pacific.
The latest Pentagon report on the modernization of Chinese military warns India about the rapid advances Beijing is making in improving infrastructure near the border areas with India and in strengthening its deterrence posture by replacing liquid-fueled nuclear capable CSS-2 IRBMs with more advanced and survivable solid-fueled CSS-5 MRBM systems. The PLA navy will be building several additional aircraft carriers to enhance its naval fleet in addition to the Kuznetsov-class carrier (Varyag).
It is likely that Beijing will have its first indigenous carrier achieving "operational capability" as early as 2015. The United States has also suggested that China's aircraft-carrier-killing ballistic missile, the DF-21D, has reached initial operational capability.
In response to the latest Sino-Indian naval incident, the U.S. called for a collaborative diplomatic process on resolving the disputes related to the East Sea, underlining its desire to recognize the right of passage through international waters in the South China Sea. Last year, the U.S. Secretary of State had suggested that the East Sea was of strategic importance to the U.S. and offered to act as a mediator.
India, too, is within its rights to transit through the international waters of East Sea, and Beijing has no right to question the passage though these waters. Of course, China claims the East Sea in its entirety but its confrontational posture and rhetoric could easily escalate to a major conflict.
The East Sea is now one of Asia's critical strategic flashpoints with some even suggesting that it will be the "military frontline" of China in coming years.
Fears have been rising in Asia that China is seeking to use its growing maritime might to dominate not only the hydrocarbon-rich waters of the East Sea but also its crucial shipping lanes, the lifeline of regional economies. The U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, used her visit to Asia last year to signal unequivocally that the U.S. was unwilling to accept China's push for regional hegemony.
When Beijing claimed the East Sea as a "core interest," Clinton retorted by proposing that the U.S. help establish an international mechanism to mediate the overlapping claims of sovereignty between China and four Southeast Asian countries.
This new U.S. assertiveness vis-à-vis Beijing has been widely welcomed in the region. The other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) strongly endorsed Clinton's call for multilateral commitment to a code of conduct for the East Sea rather than China's preferred bilateral approach.
China has collided with Vietnam and Philippines in recent months over issues related to the exploitation of East Sea for mineral resources and oil. For the past several decades, the common interests of the sea had been under American guardianship. Now China wants a new system — one that only works for Beijing and does not deal with the provision of public goods or common resources.
India, too, has an interest in protecting the sea lanes of communication that cross the East Sea to Northeast Asia and the U.S. As India's profile rises in East and Southeast Asia, it will have to assert its legitimate interests in the East Asian waters.
While the U.S. remains distracted by economic woes and the challenges of the Arab Spring in the Middle East, Japan is proving unable to tackle its political inertia and emerge as a credible balancer in the region. Thus the regional environment is conducive for assertion by Beijing.
India is right to forcefully reject Chinese claims of sovereignty over the entire East Sea. It should now build credible strategic partnerships with other regional states to prevent a Chinese regional dominance that will undermine Indian and regional security interests.
Japantimes