According to TrendForce, global laptop shipments could decline by anywhere from a few percent to nearly 10%, depending on how manufacturers adjust their prices and manage rising component costs.

Consumers may have to pay more for new devices, while manufacturers face difficult trade-offs between profitability, hardware specifications and market competitiveness.

In its latest report, TrendForce forecasts a decline in worldwide laptop shipments in 2027, with the drop ranging from the low to high single digits, depending on how manufacturers respond to mounting cost pressures.

The biggest risk facing the laptop market in 2027 may no longer be supply shortages, as in previous years, but the impact of higher prices on consumer demand.

If production costs continue to rise, manufacturers will have to decide whether to pass those increases on to consumers or absorb part of the burden to keep their products affordable.

TrendForce's baseline forecast points to a decline of several percent in global laptop shipments next year.

However, if prices for DRAM memory and central processing units (CPUs) remain elevated, laptop brands may have little choice but to pass most of the additional costs on to consumers through higher retail prices.

As laptops become more expensive, consumers are likely to hold on to their existing devices for longer rather than upgrade to new models.

This could further extend replacement cycles and push the full-year decline in laptop shipments towards the upper end of the single-digit range.

Three components account for 68% of a mainstream laptop's component costs

Cost pressures are particularly concerning because CPUs, DRAM and solid-state drives (SSDs) account for a substantial share of the total component costs of a laptop.

According to TrendForce, these three components made up as much as 68% of the total bill of materials for a mainstream laptop with a suggested retail price of $900 in the third quarter of 2026.

That significant share means a sharp increase in the price of just one or two components could substantially drive up the overall cost of manufacturing a laptop.

For products with relatively thin profit margins, manufacturers will find it difficult to absorb the full increase without affecting their financial performance.

On the other hand, raising prices too aggressively could prompt consumers to postpone purchases, particularly in the entry-level and mid-range segments, where affordability is often the deciding factor.

TrendForce believes laptop brands will face a series of difficult choices in 2027.

They could raise retail prices to protect profits but risk weakening demand. Alternatively, they could maintain current prices and absorb higher costs to stay competitive, sacrificing gross profit margins in the process.

A third option would be to reduce hardware specifications to control costs, although that could make their products less appealing to buyers.

With consumers increasingly focused on RAM capacity, processing performance and storage speeds, scaling back specifications is not a straightforward solution.

An affordable laptop with less memory or weaker performance than competing models could quickly lose its competitive edge.

Beyond component prices, supply chain arrangements and manufacturing locations could also influence how effectively laptop makers control costs.

TrendForce says that if tariff pressures do not intensify, manufacturers may consider moving some laptop production back to China to reduce expenses.

The research firm estimates that China accounted for around 76% of global laptop production in 2025. Its share is forecast to rise to 79% in 2026 and could exceed 80% by 2027.

Hai Phong