Low fertility levels in HCMC to cause bad consequences for the city's socioeconomic development

While the country has a fertility level of about 2.09 children per woman in the age of childbearing, HCMC has a fertility level of only 1.39 children a woman which is below the replacement level. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age,

Many women in Ho Chi Minh City moaned economic pressure and their busy work preventing them from having a second child.

According to the data of the Department of Population and Family Planning of Ho Chi Minh City, from 2000 up to now, the city's fertility rate continues to decline. The fertility rate was 1.76 children/woman of childbearing age in 2000, this figure dropped to only 1.39 by 2022.

Moreover, late marriage has become a trend among modern young people, causing the birth rate to decrease. Along with that, raising and taking care of children today requires a lot of expenses, leading to the psychology of giving birth to children so that they can live in the most complete material and spiritual environment. Last but not least, the speed of urbanization makes it difficult to find a job, a house, and a living, while the high cost of raising a child until adulthood makes many couples afraid to have more children.

It appears that women today end up having fewer children than they want, which makes the risk of future labor shortages visible. According to demographic models, low fertility will have a strong impact on the population structure, the proportion of young people and people of working age is decreasing, while the proportion of elderly people is increasing. This further accelerates the aging of the population in Ho Chi Minh City.

In fact, the city is entering a stage of population aging with an index of 49.4 percent, higher than that of the country with 48.8 percent, while the healthcare system has not kept pace with the rate of population aging. On the other hand, in terms of society, many families now choose to have only one child according to the 4-2-1 formula, that is, 4 paternal grandparents, 2 parents will take care of a child. However, the 4-2-1 formula created a problem in the future that one child has to be responsible for two parents and four grandparents.

In the city’s Program to adjust fertility to 2030, the municipal People's Committee sets a goal to raise the total fertility rate to 1.4 children per woman by 2025, towards 2030 to 1.6 children per woman. The city's population size is about 10.6 million people in 2025 and 12 million people in 2030. The natural population growth rate strives for over 1.1 percent in 2025 and over 1.3 percent in 2030.

According to Mr. Pham Chanh Trung, Director of the Sub-Department of Population and Family Planning in Ho Chi Minh City, this goal is not easy to achieve as it requires the participation of the entire machinery of state and the adoption of policies to make people feel more secure when deciding to give birth and raise children.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Nguyen Huu Hung, Deputy Director of the HCMC Department of Health, fretted that if the city does not have a policy to encourage people to have babies, it will be difficult to increase the birth rate.

Dr. Le Truong Giang, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Public Health Association, said that 20-30 years later, Vietnam will go into the aged population like Japan and Korea today and the Southeast Asian country will face a serious workforce. Therefore, in this period, Vietnam needs to promote fertility promotion, so that couples can decide the number of their own children.

To boost the fertility rate, the Department of Population and Family Planning of Ho Chi Minh City proposed a reduction of entire hospital fee for the second child of couples who have a household registration certificate in the southern largest city. At the same time, the city should prioritize support for loans to buy social houses and rent houses for couples who have given birth to 2 children with city household registration.

Furthermore, the Sub-Department of Population and Family Planning of Ho Chi Minh City proposed exemption and reduction of school fees for children under 10 years old in addition to support on their tuition fees and lunch for students.

Source: SGGP