VietNamNet Bridge – The cash flow has been heading for the stock market since the beginning of the year. However, it’s still unclear if the tendency is stable.


A new wave of investment

The stock market has witnessed the VN Index increasing steadily in the nine consecutive trading sessions so far this year. Especially, the VN Index on January 7 soared by seven points, or 1.9 percent, thus breaking the resistance threshold of 430 points and reaching the 434 point threshold.

Investors have got excited when seeing the foreign cash flowing into blue chips, including VCB of Vietcombank, HAG of Hoang Anh Gia Lai, CTG of Vietinbank, VIC of Vingroup, and MSN of Masan consumer group.

Foreign investors have been hunting for the shares in the VN30 group (the group of the 30 biggest shares on the HCM City Stock Exchange). Millions of VCB, HAG, CTG shares have been bought by foreign investors.

Other blue chips such as DPM of Phu My Fertilizer Plant, HPG of Hoa PHat Group have also been selling well with 1.4 million shares sold on January 7. The prices of the leading shares all have hit the ceiling prices, or have increased by 2-3 percent at least.

The bustling stock market on the first days of 2013 has surprised many domestic investors, who thought that the stock prices would only bounce back on the new positive signals of the national economy.

Tens of blue chips have seen the prices hitting the ceiling levels, including real estate, bank or finance companies’ shares, which shows the positive outlook of the investors on the economic performance.

Explaining the current investment wave, experts said that foreign and domestic investors put high hopes on the macroeconomic policies initiated by the government to settle some big problems of the national economy: bad debts, high inventories, frozen real estate market and low credit growth rate.

Investors now pour money into the stock market also because this proves to be the best choice for now. The real estate market remains gloomy, gold trade is not encouraged, the bank loan interest rates decrease, while the dong/dollar exchange rate has been stabilized.

Upward trend will be stable?

Analysts say the current stock market performance has similar features with the last year. The stock prices increased sharply in the first five months of 2012. The market bounced back after a long period of stock price decreases in the whole year 2011.

The current conditions seem to support the stock price increases. The bank loan interest rates have been decreasing, while the government has initiated a series of policies and bailouts to stimulate the demand and recover the national economy.

Analysts say it’s still too early to be sure that the macro economy would get better with the new policies, but there would be the “strong waves” in the stock market which can bring profits to investors. However, the strength of the waves would still depend on the implementation of the government initiated policies.

In general, there is a high possibility of the stock market recovery, because the stock prices are at the deepest low. Any good news about business performance would lead to the stock price increases of tens of percent.

Manh Ha