Typhoon Yagi has caused significant damage to life and property in several northern regions. The storm’s path, intensity, and characteristics upon entering the East Sea revealed many unusual patterns.
As the eye of Typhoon Yagi passed, strong winds accompanied by heavy rain caused high waves in Ha Long Bay (Quang Ninh). Dozens of moored boats were sunk by the waves. Fishermen panicked and rushed to shore, worried about damages that could amount to hundreds of millions. Photo: Thach Thao
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting recently reported on the forecasting efforts for storm Yagi, detailing:
- On September 3, after entering the East Sea, Typhoon Yagi moved primarily between the west and west-northwest. By September 5, the storm’s intensity increased by 8 levels in 48 hours (from level 8 to level 16, classified as a super typhoon).
- The storm maintained super typhoon status for over 24 hours before making landfall on Hainan Island (China) and by the evening of September 6.
- On the night of September 6, Typhoon Yagi entered the eastern waters of the northern Gulf of Tonkin, with intensity decreasing to level 14, gusting up to level 17.
- By the afternoon of September 7, the storm made landfall in the Quang Ninh and Hai Phong areas with intensity of levels 12-13, gusting up to level 15.
At the moment the storm passed, strong winds and heavy rain caused high waves in Ha Long Bay (Quang Ninh), sinking several anchored boats. Fishermen rushed to shore, fearing damage could amount to hundreds of millions.
- At 4 AM on September 8, the storm weakened into a tropical depression over the northwest region; it continued to weaken into a low-pressure area and gradually dissipated.
- By 11 AM on September 8, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting issued the final update on the tropical depression.
Characteristics of Typhoon Yagi
Many residents who parked their cars on sidewalks or in the yards of urban areas suffered consequences as dozens of cars were crushed by falling trees overnight. This occurred at Nam Do apartment complex on Truong Dinh Street, Hoang Mai District. Photo: Le Anh Dung.
On September 8th, many officers and soldiers were deployed to areas with fallen trees to trim, clean up, and rescue cars crushed under trees on the streets of Hanoi. Photo: Dinh Hieu.
- The storm exhibited rapid intensification (an increase of 8 levels within 24 hours) and maintained super typhoon status for an extended period, still at super typhoon intensity when making landfall on the eastern side of Hainan Island (China).
- It was the strongest typhoon in the past 30 years in the East Sea.
- The reduction in intensity along its path did not follow usual patterns. Typically, storms weaken quickly after crossing Hainan Island (China) and into the Gulf of Tonkin, but Typhoon Yagi's intensity did not decrease rapidly. Even as it approached Quang Ninh - Hai Phong, it retained levels 12-13.
- The storm lingered on land for 12 hours.
Observational Data:
- On Bach Long Vi Island, winds reached level 13, gusting to level 14; Co To Island, level 13, gusting to level 16; Tien Yen (Quang Ninh), level 9, gusting to level 11; Dam Ha (Quang Ninh), level 10, gusting to level 13; Cua Ong (Quang Ninh), level 12, gusting to level 14; Phu Lien (Hai Phong), level 11, gusting to level 14; Ba Lat (Thai Binh), level 9, gusting to level 12; Van Ly (Nam Dinh), level 7, gusting to level 8; Hai Duong, level 12, gusting to level 13; Luc Ngan (Bac Giang), level 9, gusting to level 11; Hung Yen, level 8, gusting to level 11; Bac Giang, level 7, gusting to level 9; Bac Ninh, level 7, gusting to level 10; Hanoi, level 6, gusting to level 8.
- From the night of September 6 to the early morning of September 8, the northern region experienced rainfall of 70-200mm, with some areas receiving over 300mm, such as: Phu Duc (Thai Binh) 441mm, Van Mai (Hoa Binh) 440mm, Vang Danh (Quang Ninh) 380mm, Xuan Thuy (Nam Dinh) 357mm, Ngoc Chien (Son La) 406mm, Lang Nhi (Yen Bai) 324mm.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, while in the northern East Sea, Typhoon Yagi had very strong intensity, maintaining a well-organized and wide circulation system in a very favorable environment (high sea surface temperatures above 31°C; significant low-level moisture convergence) - conditions that allowed the storm to maintain its strength.
Thus, 48 hours before Typhoon Yagi made landfall on Hainan Island (China), both international and Vietnamese forecasting agencies agreed that the storm would not weaken significantly upon entering the Gulf of Tonkin or as it approached the Vietnamese coast.
International forecasting agencies also agreed that the storm would maintain its very strong intensity while crossing the Gulf of Tonkin (level 13-14) and upon landfall in Vietnam (level 12, above level 12).
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting’s forecasts on the storm's intensity and movement closely matched its actual path and intensity over the Gulf of Tonkin and upon landfall, aligning with international forecasting agencies' predictions.
Additionally, the center had two consultations with Japan’s Regional Typhoon Forecasting Center and two discussions with the China Meteorological Administration during Typhoon Yagi’s forecast period to share forecasting information, expert experience, and observational data.
Future forecasts for rainfall, flooding, flash floods, and landslides
A restaurant in the Ha Long tourist area (Quang Ninh) completely collapsed, leaving only the advertising column in front of the door standing. Photo: Thach Thao
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicts that from September 8-9, the remnants of Typhoon Yagi will bring heavy rainfall to the northern plains, midlands, and mountainous regions, with average 24-hour rainfall reaching 100-150mm, and some areas potentially over 200mm.
High risks of flooding in rivers and streams, flash floods, and landslides are expected in several provinces, especially:
- Small rivers in Quang Ninh, Lang Son, Cao Bang, Hoa Binh may reach flood warning levels 2 to 3. Flooding on the Ngòi Thia River (Yen Bai), the Boi River (Hoa Binh), and the Hoang Long River (Ninh Binh) could exceed warning level 3; the downstream of the Lục Nam River may reach warning level 2.
- High risk of urban flooding and flooding in the northern plain provinces, especially in Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Lang Son, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang, Ha Giang, Yen Bai, Bac Kan, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Ha Nam, and Hanoi.
- High risk of flash floods, landslides, and soil erosion in provinces including: Quang Ninh (12 districts), Lang Son (11 districts), Bac Kan (6 districts), Thai Nguyen (9 districts), Bac Giang (8 districts), Vinh Phuc (5 districts), Hoa Binh (11 districts), Phu Tho (9 districts), Tuyen Quang (6 districts), Yen Bai (9 districts), Son La (8 districts), Lai Chau (3 districts), Lao Cai (4 districts), Thanh Hoa (10 districts).
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