According to the General Department of Population (Ministry of Health), seven provinces in Vietnam are expected to face negative population growth in 2024.

These provinces include Tay Ninh, Vinh Long, Dong Thap, An Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, and Ca Mau. An Giang is forecasted to see the largest population decline, with a growth rate of -0.7%, while the other provinces are expected to see declines ranging from -0.1% to -0.4%.

The report also predicts that Ben Tre and Tra Vinh will see zero population growth in 2024. With a current population of approximately 1.9 million, An Giang is expected to lose around 13,300 residents next year due to this negative growth rate.

In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City, which currently has the lowest fertility rate in the country at 1.32 children per woman, is projected to see a 1.9% population increase in 2024, bringing the city’s population to nearly 9.9 million.

However, this growth rate is expected to slow in the coming years, with a gradual decline from 1.4% in 2029 to 0.5% by 2045.

Vietnam’s population at the end of 2023 is expected to reach approximately 100.3 million, marking an increase of 835,000 people compared to 2022, equivalent to a growth rate of 0.85%.

This is lower than the 0.98% recorded in 2022. The country’s overall population growth has been steadily decreasing in recent years and is expected to continue this trend.

Population decline in the Mekong Delta

In 2022, two provinces - Ca Mau and Hau Giang - recorded negative population growth. Specifically, Hau Giang’s population declined by -0.06% in 2022, followed by -0.16% in 2023.

Similarly, Ca Mau’s population declined by -0.09% in 2022 and -0.02% in 2023. Over the past three years, Hau Giang lost 1.6 million residents, while Ca Mau lost 1.4 million.

For 2024, the General Department of Population predicts further population declines in Hau Giang (-0.4%) and Ca Mau (-0.3%).

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, a leading expert in demography, explained that population growth within a locality depends on various factors, including birth and death rates, as well as migration patterns.

He noted that provinces like Thai Binh, Ben Tre, Nghe An, and Ha Tinh have high out-migration rates, which can lead to lower population growth even if birth rates are not particularly low.

Demographic challenges ahead

Former Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan has also raised concerns about population decline in the Mekong Delta, noting that without significant in-migration, provinces in this region may continue to see their populations shrink.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, the fertility rate in the Southeast region is currently 1.47 children per woman, while in the Mekong Delta, it stands at 1.54-both below the replacement level.

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan has proposed three opportunities for Vietnam to address its demographic challenges and maintain a sustainable population. He emphasized that although the country’s fertility rate has been below the replacement level for only two years (2023 and 2024), Vietnam’s strong cultural emphasis on family remains a positive factor. Most young people still aspire to marry and have two or more children.

He suggested that if Vietnam implements breakthrough policies, future generations of young people will continue to value family and childbirth. This aligns with a survey conducted in August by Associate Professor Nguyen Duc Vinh, which found that nearly 72% of women in southern provinces want to have more than two children, while less than 7% want only one child. Interestingly, men were found to desire more children than women.

To encourage childbirth, Professor Nhan proposed several solutions, including reducing the working hours of laborers to 8 hours per day, 40 hours per week, to allow more time for finding a life partner, raising children, and enjoying personal interests.

He also suggested that the minimum wage should be enough to support a family of four (two adults and two children), moving from a minimum wage system to a living wage system.

Vo Thu