On December 16, Vietnam’s stock market experienced a dramatic turnaround, with hundreds of stocks surging and VN-Index climbing over 33 points. But Quoc Cuong Gia Lai (QCG) shares bucked the trend, hitting the daily floor price after authorities recommended prosecution against former CEO Nguyen Thi Nhu Loan.

In the afternoon session, more than 400 tickers advanced, many to their daily limits. At one point, VN-Index surged 43 points, nearing the 1,690 mark, driven by a wave of bottom-fishing orders.

By the close of trading, VN-Index had risen 33.17 points (+2.02%) to 1,679.18. The VN30-Index jumped over 40 points to 1,909.87. A total of 304 stocks gained, including 14 that hit the ceiling. Only 85 declined. The Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) also recorded over 100 advancing stocks.

Almost all sectors saw gains, led by real estate and securities stocks with several hitting upper limits - including Ho Chi Minh City Technical Infrastructure (CII), VNDirect (VND), Vinpearl (VPL), and CEO Group.

Liquidity also rebounded strongly, reaching nearly 24.5 trillion VND (approximately 1 billion USD), a 25% increase from the previous session.

Oil and banking sectors also posted notable performances. HDBank (HDB) and Eximbank (EIB) rose to the ceiling, while PVD and BSR hit their allowed daily gain limits, attracting millions of buy orders.

QCG collapses after legal developments

Against the bullish backdrop, QCG shares sank sharply, reversing four consecutive ceiling sessions. From 14,400 VND to 18,800 VND per share, QCG had rallied over 30% before collapsing on December 16.

The plunge followed the Ministry of Public Security’s announcement that it had concluded its investigation and recommended prosecution for Nguyen Thi Nhu Loan, former General Director of Quoc Cuong Gia Lai (QCG, listed on HOSE), former Deputy Chairwoman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Nguyen Thi Hong, and 20 others on five criminal charges.

Previously, on July 22, 2024, Quoc Cuong Gia Lai dismissed Nguyen Thi Nhu Loan as CEO and appointed her son, Nguyen Quoc Cuong, to the position. Before 2020, she served as both Chairwoman and CEO. In August 2020, she stepped down as Chairwoman but remained as CEO and a board member until her removal.

Market outlook and expert predictions

The sharp rebound in market liquidity came after weeks of stagnation, spurred by rising interbank overnight interest rates, which reached 7–7.4% annually. Toward year-end, banks aggressively raised deposit rates, though rates have recently shown signs of cooling.

Excluding the “Vin group” stocks, many others had fallen 20–50% since mid-October, creating attractive entry points, according to analysts.

Despite recent lulls, Vietnam’s stock market is on track to close 2025 with explosive growth. VN-Index is up roughly 35% year-to-date. Average daily trading value stands at nearly 29.5 trillion VND (around 1.2 billion USD) - a record level.

Experts remain optimistic, citing Vietnam’s robust economic growth and the government’s continued policy easing. Legal reforms and market infrastructure have significantly improved, with FTSE Russell upgrading Vietnam’s classification from a frontier market to an emerging one.

Global investment bank JPMorgan recently forecast that VN-Index could hit 2,200 points in 2026, driven by large-scale economic reforms and unprecedented fiscal expansion by the government.

The bank highlighted four key pillars of Vietnam’s policy transformation in 2025: strengthening the private sector, streamlining administrative structures, accelerating infrastructure development, and increasing investment in research and development. These reforms are expected to remove bottlenecks across sectors - from real estate and infrastructure to niche financial markets - paving the way for stronger corporate earnings growth.

Manh Ha