On one hand, this figure can be seen as a sign of solid economic recovery, with improved corporate revenue and profits, rising consumption, and more advanced tax administration. On the other hand, it also reveals potential risks.

To a significant extent, the 2025 revenue overshoot stems from improvements in tax administration and the expansion of the tax base. Compared with several years ago, the tax system has entered a new phase with deeper digitalization, wider application of risk-based management, better data connectivity among agencies; near-universal adoption of e-invoices; and revenue streams from e-commerce, the digital economy, and cross-border services gradually moving out of the “grey zone”.

Domestic revenue accounts for about 98 percent of the total revenue managed by the tax authorities, indicating a revenue structure that is increasingly less dependent on crude oil and imports/exports. In this sense, the 2025 surplus reflects a long-term accumulation of public financial reform rather than a short-term wave.

However, to answer the larger question—whether this revenue level reflects a genuine increase in production capacity, labor productivity, and economic competitiveness, it is necessary to examine the quality of each revenue stream.

Real estate contributes large proportion

Among the drivers of 2025 revenue, real estate has emerged as the most critical factor, and also the source of revenue with the most distinct cyclical nature.

As of November 2025, revenue from housing and land was estimated at VND505.6 trillion, exceeding projections by 172.6 percent and more than doubling year on year, according to the Statistics Office.

In Hanoi, land-use fee revenue rose 167 percent; in HCMC, land-related revenue surged by as much as 353 percent year on year, mainly from land-use fees, land rents, and projects that cleared legal bottlenecks after long delays, according to local statistical offices.

These figures point to two parallel developments. On one hand, the real estate market has seen partial recovery as many projects completed procedures, delivered products, secondary transactions increased, and prices in certain segments edged up. 

On the other hand, the settlement of backlogged financial obligations and tighter control over under-declared prices, thanks to improved data oversight, concentrated a large amount of revenue into 2025.

In the short term, a revenue boost driven by real estate is a positive sign. In the medium and long term, however, it carries risks that cannot be ignored. When the market cycle reverses, this revenue source can shrink very quickly.

No fiscal system can be truly sustainable if it relies heavily on asset markets rather than being underpinned by productivity gains, technological innovation, business competitiveness, and value added in production.

Two main economic engines

Another notable feature of the 2025 picture is the concentration of revenue in Hanoi and HCMC. Hanoi collected around VND631 trillion, exceeding projections by 32.1 percent; while HCMC collected about VND606 trillion, surpassing estimates by 20.8 percent.

Combined, the two cities contributed roughly VND1.23 quadrillion, equivalent to more than half of total domestic revenue nationwide.

When more than half of national revenue is generated by two major cities, regional risk no longer remains local but becomes macroeconomic. If these localities perform well, the budget remains stable; but if urban real estate, services, or consumption slow, the entire revenue picture can be affected immediately.

The gap in revenue-generating capacity among localities continues to widen. Many provinces still depend on central transfers, while their internal growth drivers have yet to be unlocked commensurately.

Beyond impressive numbers

The positive signals of 2025 deserve recognition. Tax administration capacity has improved; data systems and digital infrastructure are beginning to deliver results. Tax compliance has strengthened and domestic revenue has become the backbone. Real estate transactions are more transparent, and production and services have recovered after the pandemic shock.

These factors help reinforce fiscal autonomy and create room for public investment, social welfare, and infrastructure development. If further supported by institutional reform and improvements in the business environment, budget revenue can gradually shift from merely “collecting more” to “collecting better”.

Yet, exceeding projections by more than 30 percent also raises questions. The contribution from real estate remains too large and cyclical; the revenue structure is still not sufficiently based on productivity and real value added. Heavy reliance on two major cities creates concentration risk, and small businesses and household enterprises may face growing law compliance pressure as regulations tighten.

Lan Anh