VietNamNet Bridge - Economists say the differences in official statistics are puzzling and they are finding it difficult to discern how heavily Vietnam’s economy relies on China.

A newly released report caught the public’s attention when it revealed that the trade deficit in the first four months of the year made up two-thirds of the targeted trade deficit set for the year 2015.

The report by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) also pointed out that imports from China increased by 26 percent, while the exports to China decreased by 1.2 percent in comparison with the same period last year. As such, the trade deficit with China in the first four months reached $10.6 billion, or 3.2 times higher than the total trade deficit.

Some sources said the real figures on the excess of imports over exports in Vietnam-China trade in 2014 and the years before were much higher than officially released figures.

The Vietnam Economics Institute cited the National Bureau of Statistics of China as saying that Vietnam imported $63.8 billion from China in 2014, not $43.9 billion, and the import turnover accounted for 43 percent of Vietnam’s total import turnover, not 29 percent as reported by Vietnamese agencies.

However, some analysts said they are not sure if the statistics are from official sources. The Chinese statistical agency has only updated 2013’s figures about trade between China and its partners. This means there are still no official statistics about trade between Vietnam and China.

The official website of the Chinese Ministry of Trade, in charge of supervising the country’s trade, also shows updates until 2013 only.

The figures cannot be found on uncomtrade.un.org, the website on world trade.

This means that no official agency has confirmed the report that China exported $63.8 billion worth of products to Vietnam in 2014.

However, the figure has been confirmed by Hong Kong’s institute HKTDC which said China exported $63.62 billion worth of products to Vietnam, an increase of 31 percent in comparison with the same period last year. Women’s and children’s clothes saw the highest export growth rate, of 303 percent.

Analysts said there are always big differences in statistics released by Vietnam and China, and figures released by Vietnam are always lower than that provided by China.

When analyzing reports, they have found that the differences have been more pronounced than in recent years. 

The gap in figures on exports increased from below $1 billion in pre-2010, to $3.4 billion in 2011, and to $4.97 billion in 2014. 

The gap in the figures about imports increased from $0.04 billion in 2003 to $20 billion in 2014.

TBKTSG