return icon Vietnamnet.vn

Researchers warn of risks for Vietnam in 2021

The uncertainties of the global economy, the new Covid-19 mutation, and risks from lawsuits and trade remedies will have an impact on Vietnam’s economy in 2021, experts say.

{keywords}

 

A report on Vietnam’s economy in 2020 and prospects in 2021 was released by the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) on January 15, showing a bright outlook for Vietnam’s economy this year.

CIEM researchers described two scenarios, based on assessment of agencies and institutions on the world’s economic prospects and Vietnam’s economic development, as well as different economic policies.

Vietnam’s GDP growth rate may reach 5.98 percent in 2021 under Scenario 1, and 6.46 percent under Scenario 2.

The export turnover in 2021 is predicted to grow by 4.23 percent under Scenario 1 and 5.06 percent under Scenario 2.

The trade surplus is predicted to be at $5.49 billion and $7.24 billion, respectively, while the inflation rates would be 3.51 percent and 3.78 percent.

According to CIEM, Vietnam’s macroeconomic performance in 2021 will be influenced by the world economy, which is still uncertain. The US is expected to continue to apply measures to restrain China’s economy, trade and technology, and may team up with some partner countries to implement measures.

Trade conflicts among large economies will prompt international corporations to relocate their production bases to avoid high tariffs. This will be both a challenge and opportunity for Vietnam.

Second, Covid-19 and mutations remain unpredictable with the risk of outbreaks. This will result in an increase in logistics costs for manufacturing and import/export activities.

Third, many economies have launched big bailouts, and there is no coordination of the bailouts at the global level. Analysts warn that this may cause high risks for the world financial market and the global debt situation.

Fourth, the 4.0 industry revolution and digital transformation are proceeding rapidly which has affected the development of Vietnam’s businesses and the Vietnamese market.

Fifth, the capability of continuing to carry out substantial reforms in the investment and business environment will affect foreign investors’ decisions on whether to scale up investments.

Sixth, domestic consumption demand is expected to increase rapidly, and businesses may focus more on the domestic market.

Seventh, while hoping for positive impact from EVFTA, Vietnam may have to face lawsuits and trade remedies, not just in the US market.

The Central Economic Committee, when reviewing economic development in the last five years, said the economy continued growing rapidly, 6 percent per annum. The economy has a scale of $340 billion, which has increased by 1.4 times, ranking fourth in ASEAN. 

Luong Bang

How the most prominent political event in Vietnam in 2021 could affect its economy

How the most prominent political event in Vietnam in 2021 could affect its economy

The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (January 25-February 2, 2021) is one of the most prominent political events this year.

Private economy - pillar of the country’s development

Private economy - pillar of the country’s development

Government should take measures to protect private enterprises in key economic sectors to enhance their international competitiveness.

MORE NEWS

Number of international visitors to Vietnam sets 'record' after pandemic

Vietnam welcomed 2.95 million foreign visitors in January-November 2022, 21.1 times up year on year, but still down 81.9% compared with pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Su-30MK2, Mi helicopters rehearse in Hanoi

On December 2, Su-30MK2 fighters performed in a rehearsal to prepare for the upcoming Vietnam International Defense Exhibition 2022.

Vietnam sends condolences over passing of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin

Vietnamese leaders on December 2 cabled messages of condolences to Chinese leaders over the death of former General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and former President of China Jiang Zemin.

Ministry proposes canceling funding plans over disbursement delays

Disbursements of public funds sourced from foreign loans in the year through November had moved at a snail’s pace, reaching only slightly more than 25% of the full-year plan.

Hanoi to pilot bike rental service in six urban districts

Hanoi has approved a year-long pilot bike rental service programme in Hoan Kiem, Tay Ho, Dong Da, Ba Dinh, Hai Ba Trung, and Thanh Xuan districts.

Weightlifters hope for Olympic qualification from world championship

It was scheduled to be held in Chongqing, China, but this changed in March due to COVID-19 measures in China. The new location was announced in April.

Striker Nguyen Van Quyet named best player of 2022 V.League 1

Striker Nguyen Van Quyet received a statue for the most valuable player of the 2022 V.League 1 season at a V.League Awards ceremony organised on December 1 in Hanoi.

Meteor shower to light up Vietnamese skies on December 13

Local sky gazers will have a rare opportunity to witness the peak of the Geminids meteor shower, with the astronomical event set to occur between midnight on December 13 and the morning of December 14.

Da Nang wins Best Vietnam Smart City Award for third time

The central city of Da Nang has been granted the Best Vietnam Smart City Award 2022, the third time so far.

Newly-established, re-operating enterprises up over 33% in 11 months

Vietnam saw nearly 194,700 newly established and re-operating enterprises in the first 11 months of 2022, up 33.2% over the same period in 2021, a 1.3 times higher than the average rate in January – November period from 2017 - 2021.

Politburo members discuss review of resolution on HCM City development

Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong on December 2 chaired a Politburo meeting on a project to review the 10-year implementation of a resolution on the orientations and tasks for the development of HCMC until 2020 and 2030, with a vision to 2050.

Exporters face tax unless they cut greenhouse gas emissions

Exports to the EU market will become more expensive unless enterprises implement greenhouse gas emission cuts. This will affect the competitiveness of many Vietnamese export companies.

Some of the best fishing lakes in and around Hanoi

Here are some of the most popular fishing lakes near Hanoi. On weekends, the number of people flocking to commercial centres, pedestrian streets or entertainment areas in the inner city of Hanoi has increased.

Vietnam demands Taiwan cancel live-fire exercises on Ba Binh Island

Vietnam resolutely opposes and demands Taiwan (China) to cancel its live-fire exercises in the waters around Ba Binh island that belongs to Vietnam's Truong Sa (Spratly), Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang stated on December 2.

Make-in-Vietnam cameras have high security, satisfy standards

Make in Vietnam camera manufacturers are enhancing security capability and satisfying requirements on information security set by the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) for devices such as cameras and Internet of Things (IoT).
back_to_top