Still, the group has continued to receive dividends worth thousands of billions of dong.

In the morning session on December 1, SAB shares of Saigon Beer - Alcohol - Beverage Corporation, or Sabeco (SAB) surged sharply, at one point hitting the ceiling at VND49,600 per share, lifting the brewer’s market capitalization to over VND63 trillion (nearly $2.4 billion), higher than the VND44,000 per share recorded on October 20.

By the end of the December 1 session, SAB closed at VND49,000 per share, equivalent to a market capitalization of around VND62.8 trillion (about $2.38 billion).

This is good news for shareholders of the Vietnam’s largest brewery, but only a small bright spot over the past eight years. Looking at Sabeco’s stock chart, the dominant trend is a steep decline, losing around 70 percent from its peak.

What has the Thai group gained from Sabeco in 8 years?

Vietnam Beverage, a subsidiary of Thai Beverage (ThaiBev), currently owns nearly 53.6 percent of Sabeco’s capital, worth around $1.27 billion.

Compared to the $5 billion that ThaiBev spent at the end of 2017 to acquire Sabeco, the value of this investment has fallen by about $3.7 billion based on market capitalization.

Looking back, at the end of 2017, Thai Beverage spent around VND110 trillion (about $5 billion at the USD/VND exchange rate at that time) to acquire a 53.6 percent stake in Sabeco.

This was a highly watched state divestment, as Sabeco was Vietnam’s number one beer producer and had long delivered substantial dividends to the government.

At the end of 2017, SAB shares were very expensive, at times hitting VND320,000 per share, equivalent to an adjusted price of around VND125,000.

To finance this massive acquisition, ThaiBev and its wholly owned subsidiary BeerCo Limited took out six different loans totaling the equivalent of $5 billion.

ThaiBev borrowed 100 billion baht (about $3.05 billion) from Thai banks, while BeerCo borrowed $1.95 billion through two banks, Mizuho Bank (Singapore branch) and Standard Chartered (Singapore branch). The loans had a two-year term. It is unclear whether the Thai billionaire’s companies have fully repaid these debts.

Despite Sabeco’s sharp decline in market capitalization since late 2017, the company has remained one of the most consistent dividend payers with high payout ratios and strong financials and cash flow compared to many listed firms in Vietnam.

Since acquiring Sabeco, the Thai owners have collected around VND15,500 billion in dividends (nearly $590 million). The most recent payout was 30 percent (VND3,000 per share) in late June 2025. Sabeco has also decided to pay a 20 percent cash dividend for 2025, scheduled for February 2026. For 2025, Sabeco targets a dividend payout ratio of 50 percent, meaning another dividend may be distributed.

Thus, after eight years, the Thai billionaire’s ecosystem has earned dividends equivalent to around 11.7 percent of the capital invested in the 53.6 percent stake, or nearly 1.5 percent per year. The amount is large, but the return rate is modest. Moreover, if bank loans were involved, this would be a low-yield investment in a high-interest environment.

This yield is modest given global interest rates. The US base rate is around 4 percent per year, with commercial lending rates around 4.5-5.5 percent. In Asia, interest rates are around 7-10 percent per year.

Although the investment value has temporarily fallen by about $3.7 billion based on market capitalization, Sabeco remains a “golden goose” for ThaiBev, and the Thai billionaire has always shown a long-term vision and ambition to dominate Vietnam’s beer market as a springboard to Southeast Asia.

Is the beer industry still attractive?

Between 2010 and 2019, Vietnam was one of the world’s fastest-growing beer markets, with consumption rising nearly 9 percent annually, compared to under 1 percent globally.

However, in recent years, growth has slowed due to the Covid-19 pandemic and Decree 100, which imposes heavy penalties for drunk driving and took effect in early 2020. More severe penalties introduced recently have further dampened demand.

The outlook is also gloomy as the amended Special Consumption Tax Law takes effect in early 2026. Beer tax rates will rise to 65 percent in 2026, increasing by 5 percent each year to reach 90 percent by 2031.

Although Sabeco still pays regular dividends, its profits declined in 2023–2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, SAB earned around VND3,454 billion. In Q3 2025, profit rose year-on-year but revenue fell from VND7,737 billion to VND6,509 billion. Profit increased from VND1,161 billion to nearly VND1,404 billion thanks to lower cost of goods sold and a surge in other income.

Manh Ha