The Vietnam’s population is projected to reach 104 million by 2030 according to the Vietnam Population Strategy recently approved by the Prime Minister.
The strategy aims to maintain the replacement fertility (each woman of childbearing age has 2.1 children) while reducing the fertility gap between regions and subjects.
Vietnam also expects to have an average life expectancy of 75 years with a minimum healthy life of 68 years.
The country will bring the gender (at birth) ratio to the natural balance and maintain a reasonable age structure. Specifically, the percentage of children under 15 years old will be 22%, the percentage of elderly people aged from 65 and older will be 11%, and the age dependency ratio will be 49% of the national population.
Under the strategy, the average male height is expected to reach 1.685m and the female height is anticipated to reach 1.575 m by 2030.
Vietnam also hopes to have its Human Development Index (HDI) among the top four leading countries in Southeast Asia.
In addition, the country aims to improve the quality of the population, promote rational population distribution and effectively take advantage of the golden population structure while adapting to population aging.
According to the results of the 2019 population and housing census, Vietnam's population was 96.2 million as of April 2019, ranking third in Southeast Asia and 15th in the world.
HCMC seeks measures to raise birthrate
As there has been a remarkable decline in fertility rates in Ho Chi Minh City, the city is now seeking measures to raise its birthrate.
In the seminar “Low birthrate in HCMC: reality, causes and solutions” held by the HCMC Department of Health yesterday, experts addressed the consequences of low birthrate including highly affecting the city’s future demographics, and accelerating aging pace when the proportion of young people and people in working age is decreasing whereas the rate of elder people is surging.
According to the national population strategy until 2030 recently approved by the Prime Minister, which sets goals for various aspects in Vietnamese population, including maintaining replacement level fertility (this rate is roughly 2.1 children per woman).
Besides, Vietnam aims to maintain a steady rate of replacement level fertility and by 2030 the population will reach 104 million. Moreover, the government take heed to develop ethnic minority groups whose population is below 10,000 people.
Also, in the national population strategy, the rate of children aged under 15 is 22 percent and the rate of elderly people aged 65 up is 11 percent and the average height of Vietnamese male and female aged 18 is 168.5 cm and 157.5 cm.
To raise the replacement level fertility in the city, the meeting experts suggested the Ministry of Health and the General Department of Population and Family Planning to consider permission third childbirth in area with low birthrate and not to apply punishments on state-run employees who give birth to their third children.
HCMC Vice Head of Population – Family Planning Office Pham Thi My Le acknowledged that the current population of HCMC is nearly nine million with the density of 4,363 people per sq. km, the highest rate in all 63 provinces in Vietnam.
The city’s birthrate in 2018 was only 1.33, much lower than the country’s replacement level fertility of 2.1, making the city one of the 17 provinces with the lowest birthrate. The figure has been turning lower and lower year by year.
Nguyen Doan Tu, general director of the General Department for Population and Family Planning, spokeabout changes to the number of children per family and the necessity of adjusting population policies in the country.
Vietnam is one of the countries with the fastest population ageing in Asia with the transition period from the population ageing period to the aged population period is about 17-20 years, an official has said.