TH Group is widely regarded as one of Vietnam's most successful private enterprises in high-tech agriculture. Its greatest strength lies in the dairy business, supported by a vertically integrated production model that spans from dairy farms to finished products, along with large-scale farming operations in Vietnam and Russia.
Beyond dairy, the group has expanded into food, beverages, healthcare and education. Nevertheless, dairy remains the company's core revenue and profit driver.
According to data compiled by Vanguard Business Information, TH Group generated approximately $700 million in revenue and nearly $100 million in net profit in 2023. A successful $1 billion fundraising round for a 30% stake would imply a valuation equal to roughly 70% of the current market capitalization of Vinamilk, Vietnam's largest listed dairy company with a history spanning nearly five decades.
That valuation represents both an advantage and a challenge.
Compared with many other consumer sectors, dairy remains an essential industry that is less vulnerable to economic cycles. Growth potential also remains supported by rising incomes, relatively low per-capita milk consumption compared with other countries in the region, and increasing demand for premium nutrition products.
At the same time, the sector no longer enjoys the explosive growth rates seen a decade ago. The market has become more mature, growth has slowed and competition has intensified.
Even Vinamilk has struggled to maintain its previous pace of expansion. After rising nearly 30-fold between 2009 and 2017, from around VND3,500 per share to a peak of VND100,000, Vinamilk shares have spent recent years trading well below their historical highs, reflecting more modest growth expectations.
Investment preferences among global funds have also evolved. While investors were once willing to pay premium valuations for leading consumer brands, they are now more selective, favoring companies with sustainable earnings growth, transparent governance, international expansion potential and efficient supply chains.
The market has also witnessed several fundraising efforts that failed to meet expectations.
Another factor is the broader international capital environment. Since 2023, foreign investors have been net sellers in Vietnam's stock market, withdrawing billions of dollars. Elevated US interest rates and Treasury yields have encouraged many funds to hold dollar-denominated assets, while exchange-rate pressures have reduced the attractiveness of investments in emerging markets.
Nevertheless, Vietnam continues to be viewed as one of Asia's fastest-growing economies. The expanding middle class, resilient domestic consumption and prospects for an upgrade in the country's stock market classification remain attractive factors for long-term investors.
For TH Group, its strong brand, high-tech agricultural model, integrated production chain and opportunities for market expansion remain important strengths.
According to analysts, one of the key issues investors will examine is whether the company can sustain growth and profitability over the long term.
To secure a billion-dollar investment, TH Group will need to demonstrate its ability to expand markets, improve profitability and maintain governance standards in line with international best practices.
Manh Ha
