Missed opportunities 

In 2024, Vu, a 34-year-old office worker in Hanoi, had his eye on a two-bedroom apartment in a project in Hoai Duc, priced at around VND60 million per sqm.

While researching home purchases, he joined several Facebook groups, particularly one called “Stop Buying Houses in Hanoi to Avoid Inflated Prices.” The group was abuzz with posts calling for a boycott of sky-high home prices, sharing information about projects deemed “overpriced,” and predicting a sharp drop in housing prices due to economic challenges. Vu was persuaded by these analyses and believed that real estate prices increased too rapidly and far exceeded their actual value.

“At the time, I read many posts in the group saying that apartment prices of VND80-100 million per sqm were absurd. I was told to wait, that prices would crash, so I decided to postpone my purchase,” Vu said. Convinced that property prices were inflated and would soon plummet, he delayed his plan to buy his dream apartment last year.

Now, he faces the harsh reality that home prices have not only failed to drop but have surged, leaving him regretful for missing his chance. Watching prices soar, Vu lamented, “Last year, I missed out, and now I’d need to add another billion VND to buy an apartment. A friend even teased me that waiting for prices to crash meant crashing my dream of owning a home.”

At current prices, the apartment Vu had targeted is now beyond his financial reach. “Back then, I had VND1.5 billion in savings and only needed a small loan to buy. Now, a similar apartment costs VND5-6 billion, and I don’t know where to find the money,” he said.

The Facebook group Vu once followed has now largely gone silent. Once filled with lively posts garnering thousands of interactions, it now has only sporadic advertisements. Many members, like Vu, have quietly left the group or feel embarrassed to mention their decision to wait for a price crash.

Last year’s decision to delay buying a home has left Son and his wife in Bac Ninh unable to afford one this year. In 2024, the couple explored purchasing an apartment in Linh Dam, where prices averaged VND30-35 million per sqm, equivalent to VND2-2.2 billion for a two-bedroom unit.

The couple thought they could take their time, save more money, and buy later, hoping prices would drop due to the lack of ownership certificates and the aging condition of decade-old buildings.

Just one year later, their dream of owning an apartment has become increasingly out of reach as prices skyrocketed from VND2 billion to VND3 billion. “I heard the apartments we looked at are now mostly sold out. 

Some are being resold for VND3 billion, and buyers are still lining up. No ownership certificate, yet prices remain sky-high,” Son said.

With their current budget, Son and his wife have little chance of buying a similar apartment in Linh Dam. According to surveys from real estate agencies, apartment prices in Linh Dam have surged, especially in older projects like HH Linh Dam or VP6. The 60-sqm, two-bedroom apartment the couple once considered are now listed at VND3-3.2 billion, or about VND50 million per sqm, a nearly 50 percent increase from last year.

Son said that last year, with VND1.3 billion in savings, they only needed to borrow VND700 million to buy. Now, with prices at VND3 billion, they would need to borrow over VND1.5 billion, creating immense financial pressure.

The couple considered shifting to farther areas like Ha Dong or Dong Anh, but apartment prices there have also risen significantly.

A hazardous gamble

According to market data, over the past five years, the average apartment price in Hanoi has risen from VND20-25 million per sqm to VND80-100 million per sqm.

Many new apartment projects have recorded common asking prices ranging from VND80 to 100 million per sqm. Some luxury projects have even reached VND150-300 million per sqm. Limited supply, rising input costs, and new legal regulations are expected to continue pushing primary market prices higher. Older apartments in use for years have also seen price increases, driving secondary market prices in some inner-city areas close to VND100 million per sqm.

Finance expert Nguyen Manh Cuong noted that home prices are rising due to factors like limited supply and high demand for actual housing. Amid global inflation and low interest rates in Vietnam, real estate remains a safe investment, attracting both domestic and foreign capital. As a result, delaying home purchases in hopes of price drops often leads to buying at higher prices later.

Duy Anh