No more overheated price rallies

At the "Identifying Real Estate Finance Trends 2026" seminar organized by Vietnam Finance on June 6, Le Xuan Nghia, former Vice Chair of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said real estate will remain one of the economy’s major capital-attracting fields in the coming years.

According to him, housing supply is gradually improving thanks to a series of policies introduced by the Government and the National Assembly to remove bottlenecks in the market. At the same time, housing demand remains strong. However, he believes the market is unlikely to witness the kind of sharp price increases seen in previous periods.

"The possibility of prices rising 20-30 percent is very unlikely because capital flows in the economy are no longer concentrated solely in real estate. They are also being allocated to industrial production, trade, services, infrastructure, and many other fields," Nghia said.

He added that the more diversified allocation of capital is actually a positive sign, helping the real estate market develop in a healthier manner and avoiding speculative price bubbles.

Looking ahead, Nghia emphasized: "There will be no market freeze, but there will also be no widespread overheating. Capital will become more selective and focus on projects with real value, infrastructure advantages, and the ability to meet actual market demand."

Sharing the same view, economist Ngo Tri Long said 2026 will mark a significant shift in investment capital behavior.

He noted that while the economy is recovering, interest rates are unlikely to return to the era of ultra-cheap capital. At the same time, real estate lending continues to face stricter controls, making it harder for capital to flow indiscriminately into all segments.

According to Long, cash flow will prioritize reputable developers, projects with complete legal standing, and real estate types that generate actual economic value, such as industrial real estate, logistics, or housing serving genuine residential needs.

One of the market’s biggest changes, he said, is that legal transparency will become a decisive factor in determining asset value.

The expert believes the market is transitioning from short-term speculation to long-term investment. This shift is inevitable as capital becomes increasingly cautious amid economic uncertainties.

He also advised investors to pay close attention to developers' financial strength, debt obligations, and fundraising capabilities. In particular, excessive financial leverage will no longer offer the advantages it did during previous growth cycles.

Where is capital flowing?

Nguyen Van Dinh, Chair of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, said capital is increasingly moving toward assets with practical utilization potential rather than those relying solely on expectations of future price appreciation.

According to him, after years of market volatility, investors are paying greater attention to cash-flow generation, operational efficiency, product quality, and asset safety.

Projects with transparent legal status, comprehensive planning, strong infrastructure connectivity, and the ability to meet genuine housing demand continue to attract interest.

In contrast, products that depend mainly on price appreciation expectations or are located in areas lacking clear development drivers and practical utility are finding it harder to attract investment capital.

Dinh believes this is a sign of a more mature market. Investors are no longer willing to follow crowd psychology blindly and now demand more data, transparency, and verifiable information.

"If many investors were previously willing to commit capital based on crowd sentiment or expectations of rapid price increases, they are now paying much closer attention to actual operational performance, cash-flow potential, project legality, and asset safety. In the new market cycle, real estate will no longer be suitable for a growth model driven primarily by speculation and short-term trend chasing," Dinh said.

Meanwhile, Pham Duc Toan, CEO of EZ Property, said public investment and infrastructure development will continue to be the strongest drivers of the real estate market in the coming years.

Unlike previous cycles, when land prices often rose mainly on expectations, investors are now focusing on localities where infrastructure projects are actually being implemented, populations are increasing, and businesses are establishing production and commercial operations.

According to Toan, in the new cycle, real estate value will be determined by the pace of infrastructure development, the ability to attract residents, and actual demand for use, rather than by short-lived speculative booms.

Hong Khanh