Typhoon Kalmaegi is expected to be extremely powerful, with a wide circulation zone bringing intense rain and wind across areas from southern Quang Tri to Dak Lak.

Forecast models suggest the storm’s trajectory and impact will resemble the destructive paths of Damrey in 2017 and Molave in 2020.

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Forecasted path of Typhoon Kalmaegi, updated as of the afternoon of November 4. Source: VNDMS

On the evening of November 4, Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, provided detailed updates on Typhoon Kalmaegi and its projected impact on Vietnam’s mainland weather.

According to Khiem, on the night of November 1, a tropical depression over the eastern sea of central Philippines strengthened into a storm and was named Kalmaegi. It moved west-southwest at a speed of about 25 km/h.

By the afternoon of November 3, the storm had intensified to level 12, with gusts reaching level 15, and changed direction to the west, maintaining its speed.

Khiem predicted that from the night of November 4 to the early hours of November 5, Kalmaegi would pass over the northern part of Palawan Island (Philippines) and enter the East Sea, becoming Vietnam’s 13th storm of 2025. The storm’s intensity could exceed level 14 as it passes through the Truong Sa Archipelago and the waters between Da Nang and Khanh Hoa.

Although the storm had not yet reached the East Sea, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting had already issued an emergency storm warning due to the storm’s dangerous potential.

Khiem explained that current models suggest the storm is unlikely to weaken once it enters Vietnam’s central waters. This is because the cold air mass is weakening, sea surface temperatures in the East Sea remain high, atmospheric moisture is abundant, vertical wind shear is moderate, and the storm is following the tropical convergence zone - all favorable conditions for further intensification.

The storm is expected to move into Vietnam’s central waters by the afternoon of November 6. From that night, it could directly affect the region from Da Nang to Khanh Hoa, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall from November 6 to 9.

In coastal areas, wind speeds may reach level 10 to 12 with gusts up to level 15. Inland areas could experience level 7 to 9 winds, with gusts at level 13 to 14. Heavy rainfall is forecasted for provinces from Quang Tri to Dak Lak.

“This is a very strong typhoon with a broad circulation zone. It is expected to directly impact coastal provinces and cities from southern Quang Tri to Dak Lak,” Khiem stated. He added that its trajectory and potential damage are similar to Typhoon Damrey, which hit Phu Yen and Khanh Hoa in 2017, and Typhoon Molave, which struck Quang Nam and Quang Ngai in 2020 - both of which caused devastating winds, heavy rains, and high waves.

Khiem emphasized the need for authorities and residents to stay alert, as the storm’s strength, path, and rainfall areas may shift in the coming days.

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Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, updates the public on Typhoon Kalmaegi’s path and strength on the evening of November 4. Photo: H.L

Waves up to 10 meters high expected

Due to the effects of Typhoon Kalmaegi, the central area of the East Sea, including northern waters of the Truong Sa Archipelago, will experience increasing wind speeds of level 7 to 8, later rising to levels 9 to 11. Near the storm’s eye, winds could reach level 12 to 14 with gusts up to level 17, and wave heights could reach 5 to 7 meters, with some areas hitting 8 to 10 meters. The sea will be extremely rough.

From early morning on November 6, waters from Da Nang to Khanh Hoa, including Ly Son Island, will also experience escalating winds from level 6 to 7, rising to level 8 to 11. Near the storm’s center, wind speeds could reach level 12 to 14, gusting to level 17, with waves of 4 to 6 meters and even 6 to 8 meters in the storm’s path.

Coastal areas from Hue to Dak Lak may also experience storm surge levels rising by 0.3 to 0.6 meters.

Heavy rainfall with some areas exceeding 600mm

From the evening of November 6, coastal areas from southern Quang Tri to Da Nang, eastern Quang Ngai, and Dak Lak will begin experiencing winds of level 6 to 7, increasing to levels 8 to 9. Near the storm’s core, winds could reach levels 10 to 12, particularly in the eastern parts of Quang Ngai and Dak Lak, with gusts at levels 14 to 15.

Later that night, western Quang Ngai and Gia Lai will also be affected by winds of level 6 to 7, with gusts potentially reaching level 10.

Regarding rainfall, experts report that the current cold air mass is weakening and is unlikely to intensify between November 6 and 7. During this time, eastern winds will remain relatively weak, meaning most rainfall will come from the storm’s outer circulation.

The storm’s center may span from Quang Ngai to Dak Lak, bringing severe landfall.

From November 6 to 7, areas from Da Nang to Dak Lak could receive 200 to 400 mm of rain, with some localities exceeding 600 mm. From southern Quang Tri to Hue, Khanh Hoa, and Lam Dong, expected rainfall ranges from 150 to 300 mm, with isolated totals surpassing 450 mm. Rainfall is forecasted to taper off after November 8.

From November 7 to 8, the heavy rains may expand northward to areas from northern Quang Tri to Thanh Hoa, where rainfall could reach 50 to 150 mm, with some areas exceeding 200 mm.

Warning: Intense rain exceeding 200mm in three hours

Khiem also warned that heavy rains may trigger flooding in areas such as Hue and Da Nang. Although water levels may rise, they are unlikely to surpass peaks recorded on October 27 and November 3. However, Dak Lak and Gia Lai could see significant flood levels and should be monitored closely.

Meteorologists caution that due to the storm’s wide circulation, there is an increased risk of thunderstorms, tornadoes, and strong gusts both before and during landfall.

Kalmaegi is moving quickly and could directly impact areas from Da Nang to Khanh Hoa. It will enter the East Sea on the morning of November 5, with landfall expected between late November 6 and early November 7. Coastal areas are forecast to experience wind speeds of level 10 to 12, with gusts at levels 14 to 15.

Bao Anh