In its mid-cycle market classification report released early April 8, FTSE Russell acknowledged significant progress in Vietnam’s market accessibility, particularly through global brokerage connectivity. The organization confirmed that the previously announced upgrade plan from October 2025 remains unchanged.

The Secondary Emerging Market group currently includes economies such as China, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, placing Vietnam on track to join a more prominent tier in global capital markets.

Since the September 2025 annual review, Vietnam has continued advancing its global brokerage model. Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC formally establishes this framework while introducing improvements to the non-prefunding (NPF) mechanism.

Regulators, domestic and international brokers, custodians and trading institutions have reached agreement on key operational components. Remaining efforts are focused on finalizing bilateral arrangements between global and local brokerage firms.

To ensure a smooth transition aligned with local market capacity, FTSE Russell will phase Vietnam’s inclusion into its global indices over multiple stages, starting in September 2026 and extending through 2027.

The upgrade marks a pivotal milestone, signaling stronger recognition from the global investment community. It is expected to unlock substantial international capital inflows, enhance market liquidity and reinforce Vietnam’s position in the global financial system.

According to estimates from SSI Securities, passive inflows alone could reach approximately US$1.67 billion over several quarters following the upgrade. These funds would primarily come from global ETFs tracking FTSE Emerging Markets indices.

Beyond passive capital, broader investment flows may also increase as improvements in accessibility, transparency and market operations attract greater attention from international investors.

SSI Research noted that ETF capital typically targets stocks meeting key criteria such as large market capitalization, strong liquidity, high free float and minimal foreign ownership restrictions.

Earlier projections by VNDirect suggested Vietnam could attract between US$1 billion and US$1.5 billion from mutual funds and ETFs tracking FTSE indices post-upgrade. Meanwhile, HSBC estimates total foreign inflows - both active and passive - could range from US$3.4 billion to US$10.4 billion.

VNDirect identified several stocks likely to benefit directly from the FTSE upgrade, including VIC, VHM, VCB, SSI, MSN, VNM, FPT and HPG.

Recent market signals show capital gradually returning to equities as the real estate and gold markets cool, while cryptocurrencies remain volatile and Vietnam maintains ambitious economic growth targets.

According to SSI Research, after a recent correction driven by profit-taking, rising interest rate concerns and global geopolitical uncertainties, the stock market is expected to regain positive momentum. Its medium-term outlook remains supported by multiple favorable factors.

SSI recommends focusing on sectors such as banking, consumer goods, construction materials, insurance and companies with strong cash positions - beneficiaries of higher interest rates. Notable stocks include CTG, MBB, VCB and HPG.

 
Manh Ha