According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the US market imported over 28,000 tons of pepper worth more than 128 million USD in the first five months of 2024.

This marks a 35.7% increase in volume and a 53.4% increase in value compared to the same period last year, making the US the largest market for Vietnamese pepper.

Germany ranked second, importing 6,842 tons worth more than 32.8 million USD, an 85.8% increase in volume and a 119.9% increase in value.

India followed closely, with imports of 6,813 tons valued at more than 28 million USD, up 38.8% in volume and 76.3% in value.

Among the top 10 export markets for Vietnamese pepper, all recorded growth in both volume and value except for the United Arab Emirates. In the first five months of 2024, pepper exports to the UAE reached 5,558 tons worth 23.108 million USD, a 10.3% decrease in volume but a 14.6% increase in value.

Notably, pepper exports to South Korea showed triple-digit growth in both volume and value. In the first five months of the year, exports to this market reached 3,262 tons, with a turnover of 14.841 million USD, up 153.7% in volume and 188.7% in value compared to the same period last year.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's pepper exports in May 2024 reached 26,340 tons, worth over 117 million USD. This represents a 0.5% increase in volume and a 0.7% increase in value compared to April 2024.

However, compared to May 2023, there was a 9.0% decrease in volume but a 30.2% increase in value. In the first five months of 2024, total exports reached 109.330 tons, worth 469 million USD, down 16.8% in volume but up 15.4% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

In May 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese pepper reached 4,443 USD/ton, up 0.2% from April 2024 and a significant 43% increase from May 2023. For the first five months of 2024, the average export price was 4,290 USD/ton, a 38.7% increase over the same period in 2023.

Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice President of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province), attributed this year's sharp increase in pepper prices to a forecasted decrease in pepper output due to the El Niño phenomenon and a significant reduction in cultivation areas.

Ms. Hoang Thi Lien, President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), noted that declining pepper prices in previous years led many growers to reduce their cultivation areas, replacing them with durian and other higher-value crops. Consequently, the supply of pepper has decreased significantly. Additionally, the carry-over inventory from the previous year is minimal, while demand from major markets like Europe, the US, and China is surging.

Mr. Binh added that pepper acreage is still declining due to aging plants and crop changes. New plantings will not impact output for at least four years, maintaining a scarce supply situation.

"With current trends, global pepper output cannot meet consumer demand, so prices will likely continue rising for the next 3-5 years," Ms. Lien said.

A representative from the Import-Export Department predicted that rising domestic pepper prices will drive up export prices, potentially earning the industry billions of USD this year. Globally, pepper prices are expected to continue increasing, albeit at a slower rate.

In the domestic market, black pepper prices have risen sharply due to limited supply. However, experts advise against massively expanding planting areas. Instead, focus on intensive care for existing pepper plants to ensure sustainable and stable development.

For businesses, the VPSA recommends caution in purchasing and exporting activities to avoid risks similar to those experienced in the coffee and rice markets.

Vietnam's pepper industry accounts for 40% of global output and 60% of the world market share. According to the VPSA, the global pepper market is valued at approximately 5.4 billion USD and is projected to grow at an average rate of about 20% from 2024 to 2032.

PV