From now until the end of 2025, Vietnam is expected to face more storms and tropical depressions than in previous years, along with increasingly active cold fronts and other extreme weather events.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, a low-pressure system in the central East Sea is forecast to move west-northwest today (September 16) and has a 60-70% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression. However, the probability of it intensifying into a storm remains low (below 10%). This system is mainly expected to bring thunderstorms and strong winds of force 5-6 to the central East Sea, making conditions hazardous at sea.

Looking further ahead to the final 10 days of September, one to two strong storms may form over the eastern seas of the Philippines and could enter the East Sea, posing a threat to Vietnam’s mainland. Meteorologists are monitoring the system and will provide warnings three to five days in advance if a storm develops.

The weather agency has also released its seasonal climate outlook for the next six months (October 2025 to March 2026). During this period, the ENSO phenomenon is expected to remain neutral but slightly lean toward a cold phase, although not strong enough to be classified as a La Niña event.

Despite this, the country will likely see significant weather fluctuations, including storms, cold waves, and flooding in the final months of the year.

Specifically, from October to December 2025, the number of storms or tropical depressions forming over the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is projected to be above the long-term average. Historically, the East Sea sees 4.5 storms per year on average, with around 1.9 making landfall.

From January to March 2026, the likelihood of storms forming in the East Sea drops significantly.

Cold air to peak from December to February

During the same period, strong cold spells are expected to begin from November to December 2025, continuing into January and February 2026 before gradually weakening in March.

Earlier predictions had indicated that cold air might arrive by late September, but these early waves are expected to be weak and inconsistent, with minimal impact on temperatures in northern provinces.

Severe cold spells in northern Vietnam are forecast to appear from the second half of December and become more frequent in January and February, aligning with historical averages.

Regarding rainfall, moderate to heavy rain events are expected in the central region, especially from Ha Tinh to Hue and the eastern areas of Quang Ngai to Khanh Hoa, between October and November. From January to March 2026, scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue in the region.

In the early months of 2026, the southern region is also expected to see some out-of-season rains.

Notably, the total rainfall across most of the country in October and November is projected to be 10-30% higher than the historical average, and possibly even more in some areas. In contrast, northern regions, particularly the northwest, may see rainfall deficits of 5-15%.

Average national temperatures in October 2025 are expected to be close to the long-term average, while in November and December, they may drop by around 0.5 degrees Celsius. From January to March 2026, temperatures are forecast to return to near-average levels.

These projections suggest a highly unpredictable and potentially hazardous end to 2025. Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, lightning, hail, cold snaps, and frost could pose serious risks to livelihoods and infrastructure.

Authorities and residents are urged to closely follow official meteorological bulletins, especially short-term alerts, to prepare and respond promptly to ensure safety and minimize damage.

Bao Anh